Major League Baseball technically kicked off its 2024 regular season last week. The San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers got a head start on their 28 rivals who will celebrate “Opening Day” on Thursday, splitting the first two regular season games played on South Korean soil.
With two teams sporting a 1-1 record and the rest of the field tied at 0-0, it’s not too late to predict the six teams who will finish the 2024 season at the top of their respective division standings.
The offseason was famously stingy toward free agent contracts. A handful of superstars changed teams — Shohei Ohtani (to the Dodgers), Juan Soto (to the Yankees) — but player movement was relatively static overall. The predicted order of finish below will have a familiar look, too:
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National League East
Predicted Winner: Atlanta Braves
No team has done a better job keeping its best young players around by signing them to long-term contract extensions than the Braves. The result? Six consecutive division titles, highlighted by a 2021 World Series championship. New this year are veteran pitchers Chris Sale and Reynaldo Lopez, who become the Braves’ fourth and fifth starters, and outfielder Jarred Kelenic.
For the most part, though, it’s the same group that won an MLB-best 104 games a year ago. The Philadelphia Phillies have a strong core that could make the division race interesting, but Atlanta can lean on reigning National League MVP Ronald Acuña Jr., a singular talent in today’s game.
National League Central
Predicted Winner: Chicago Cubs
The Cubs surprised many by challenging for a Wild Card spot through the final weekend of the 2023 regular season. Their 83 wins trailed the Arizona Diamondbacks — who captured the National League pennant — by one game. Their pitching staff took a collective step forward, and a rejuvenated Cody Bellinger catalyzed a surprising lineup.
Now, Bellinger has re-signed for 2024. Free agent left-hander Shota Imanaga was lured from Japan to bolster the starting rotation. Craig Counsell was the headline move of the offseason after leaving his hometown Brewers to become the game’s highest-paid manager with the Cubs — and leave Milwaukee in the rear-view mirror after winning back-to-back division titles.
National League West
Predicted Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers probably didn’t need to commit more than $1.3 billion in future contracts in order to remain the favorites in their own division. They did so anyway, capping a historic offseason Wednesday by re-signing catcher Will Smith to a 10-year contract extension.
Shohei Ohtani will take over at DH, Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto take over the starting rotation, and former All-Star Teoscar Hernández will look to power the middle of the lineup after a down year in Seattle. But the Dodgers’ first three hitters — Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman — have a chance to be one of the best trios in baseball history.
American League East
Predicted Winner: Baltimore Orioles
After years of rebuilding their roster, the young Orioles broke out ahead of schedule in 2023 to win an American League-best 101 games. They traded for Milwaukee Brewers ace Corbin Burnes to anchor a young starting rotation, and are expected to bring up the game’s number-1 overall prospect, Jackson Holliday, to bolster an already loaded lineup in 2024.
The New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays are perennial favorites, and the Toronto Blue Jays are looking to cash in on their own years-long rebuild with an extended playoff run. But it’s hard to count out the Orioles, whose fresh-faced team should only improve with a year’s worth of experience and the confidence of winning in a tough division.
American League Central
Predicted Winner: Minnesota Twins
While the rest of the division patiently rebuilds its way to playoff contention, the Twins have quietly assembled one of the game’s most dependable rosters. It starts with the lineup, where breakout star Royce Lewis joins Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa to form a deep, powerful lineup.
The Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals will look to accelerate their respective marches toward respectability, while the Cleveland Guardians’ pitching staff routinely bails out an underachieving lineup. But the Twins’ balanced attack remains one of the best examples of roster-building on a budget, and will keep Minnesota playing into October.
American League West
Predicted Winner: Houston Astros
Seven consecutive AL Championship Series appearances have turned the Astros into a modern dynasty that shows no signs of slowing down. A contract extension for Jose Altuve, and the steady slugging of stars Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman promise to make the Astros a familiar presence in October once again.
Josh Hader, one of the game’s best closers, signed with Houston in free agency – the kind of move that can make a big difference in a competitive division. Look for the defending World Series champion Rangers and up-and-coming Seattle Mariners to keep it competitive, but the Astros to prevail in the end.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.