Putin Ally Could Soon Be in Charge of European Council

European Union leaders are rushing to prevent Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán from taking over the leadership of the powerful body that guides the bloc’s political agenda, as the populist leader continues to hamper collective efforts to back Ukraine and contain Russia.

Current European Council President Charles Michel has set off a scramble to replace him, announcing his intention to run for election to the European Parliament in June.

“If I get elected, I will take my seat,” Michel said. “The European Council can anticipate and name a successor by end-June, early-July.”

EU leaders expected to have until mid-November—when Michel’s term is due to end—to replace the Belgian. If they cannot agree on a new permanent Council president, the post will go to the member state holding the six-month rotating presidency. From July 1, that will be Hungary, leaving Orbán in de facto control of the body chairing Council meetings and forming the new European Commission.

The Hungarian leader, long close to President Vladimir Putin and often criticized as a Kremlin Trojan Horse within Europe and NATO, has been a persistent brake on European efforts to arm and fund Ukraine as Kyiv fights off Russian invasion.

Orbán has repeatedly called for immediate peace talks and Ukrainian concessions, for example asserting in October: “It is obvious that there is no victory for the poor Ukrainians on the battlefield.” In December, the right-wing leader blocked some $55 billion in EU funding for Ukraine.

Michel has already sought to ease fears of a takeover by Budapest. “I want to be clear that in any case, in June the decision was to be made on my successor and the parliament decision will be in July so it’s easy for the council to decide, to anticipate for my successor to enter into function,” he said on Sunday. “There are many tools if there is the political will to avoid Viktor Orbán.”

Newsweek has contacted Orbán’s office by email to request comment.

Orbán is keen to retain lucrative economic ties with Moscow—not least the cheap gas, oil and nuclear fuel on which Hungary’s economy remains dependent—while trying to strong-arm the EU into releasing billions in funds frozen over leaders’ concerns about the deteriorating rule of law in the central European nation.

Brussels released almost $11 billion in withheld funding in December, but Orbán wants more. Balázs Orbán, the Hungarian prime minister’s political director and no relation, said: “We don’t get our money. Why would we have any further [financial] facility?” he said, accusing fellow EU states of “blackmailing Hungary for years.”

Regardless of his motives, Orbán control over the Council would be bad news for Kyiv. Ukrainian leaders are pushing their Western partners to maintain and expand the military and financial aid key to the country’s survival.

Kyiv has warned of a long and costly war to liberate its internationally recognized territory as polls and election campaigns across Europe and in the U.S. are highlighting a certain “Ukraine fatigue” among Western publics.

Orbán’s continued pushback on Ukraine funding has won him no friends in Kyiv, where years of bilateral tensions over the rights of the Hungarian minority in Ukraine and the prime minister’s close relationship with the Kremlin had already soured relations.

“It’s frustrating, of course, that Orbán is acting as a hostage taker to squeeze money out of the EU,” Oleksandr Merezhko, a member of the Ukrainian parliament and chair of the body’s foreign affairs committee, told Newsweek in December. “The EU shouldn’t encourage such political behavior. it shouldn’t yield to Orbán’s blackmail.”

Kataryna Wolczuk, an associate fellow at the British Chatham House think tank, told Newsweek Orbán is “not going to change course.” On bloc enlargement in particular, she said, the Hungarian leader has been clear in his opposition.

Orbán did not use Hungary’s EU veto to block the December decision to open membership negotiations with Ukraine, but he did immediately sink the massive funding package. Even in supporting membership talks, Orbán has calculated that Budapest will have about 75 opportunities to block Kyiv’s future membership.

“I’ve actually looked at the procedure of enlargement and it’s more than that,” Wolczuk said. “On enlargement he’s very explicit. He doesn’t want it to happen.”

Budapest may yet play a role in the hunt for Michel’s replacement. “Orbán is very smart,” Wolczuk said. “He can play the game. He can block a good candidate, or a consensus candidate, to make sure there is nobody appointed, or make it so they are difficult to appoint. Or there will be a compromise candidate who will be weaker.” A qualified majority is sufficient to elect a European Council president.

“He doesn’t want to have strong EU institutions. So, he is likely to actually derail any sensible appointments.”

Even if a replacement for Michel is found in time, the bloc will need to weather a Hungarian rotating presidency. EU institutions and states face a “massive” agenda that includes funding Ukraine, reforming the enlargement process, and conducting European Parliament elections in June. The bloc “needs to get on with this agenda as soon as possible,” Wolczuk said. Orbán, though, “can basically paralyze the EU for six months.”

“Fortunately, the EU presidency is not as important as it used to be,” Wolczuk added. “A very active, diligent country can do a lot, but otherwise it’s mainly about organizing and managing.” Still, with an ambivalent or malicious Budapest at the helm, “we’re talking about a bit of power vacuum.”

“Having a presidency that is not interested in making anything happen, with regard to internal reforms of the union, in terms of institutional changes, in terms of budget, and in terms of enlargement policy, doesn’t bode very well,” Wolczuk said.