Russian President Vladimir Putin is waiting on the outcome of the next U.S. presidential election before striking a potential peace deal with Ukraine, former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul said.
Several world leaders have proposed ways to bring the nearly 18-month-long war in Ukraine to an end. Last week, dozens of countries met in Saudi Arabia to discuss potential peace talks, although Moscow was not invited to join. The chief of staff for NATO’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg suggested on Tuesday that Ukraine could join the alliance if it agreed to cede some of its territory to Russia, although the proposal was quickly shot down by both Kyiv and NATO officials.
But according to McFaul, who served under the administration of former President Barack Obama from 2012 to 2014, countries are wasting their time trying to carve out a peace deal that focuses on how Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky or President Joe Biden could reach an end to the war. Instead, McFaul said, political pundits who want fighting to cease should focus on ways to “compel” Putin to negotiate.
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“Putin thinks he is winning; in his view, his army is successfully preventing the advancement of the Ukrainian counteroffensive and has a good enough hold over the territories conquered last year,” McFaul wrote on his Substack site Friday. “Why would he negotiate now?”
McFaul also noted that the Kremlin leader “believes that time is on his side, particularly when it comes to U.S. support for the war.”
“Obviously, Putin is waiting for the outcome of the U.S. 2024 presidential election,” he continued. “If [former President Donald] Trump is reelected, Putin has reason to believe that he could strike a much better deal on Ukraine. So why would he enter negotiations now?”
Trump, who has held a steady lead over his other 2024 GOP rivals ahead of the Republican primary election, has said that he would end the Russia-Ukraine war “in 24 hours” if reelected to office, although military analysts have dismissed his plan.
The former president also seemed to at one point hold a more favorable view toward Putin in the Eastern European conflict, calling the Russian leader a “genius” shortly after Moscow launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022. But in an interview last month with Fox News, Trump expressed support for continuing to back Ukraine in the fight, although he wants to see European allies match the over $113 billion that Congress has approved in military aid to Kyiv.
“I know Zelensky very well, and I know Putin very well, even better,” Trump told Fox News’ Maria Bartiromo during the July interview.
“And I had a good relationship, very good, with both of them,” he continued. “I would tell Zelensky, no more. You got to make a deal. I would tell Putin, if you don’t make a deal, we’re going to give him a lot. We’re going to [give Ukraine] more than they ever got if we have to. I will have the deal done in one day. One day.”
Zelensky previously dismissed Trump’s sentiment that the former president could reach an end to the war within a day.
Newsweek reached out to Trump’s campaign via email Friday evening for comment.