The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) on Wednesday said Russia’s armed forces have been given a deadline that’s just over three weeks away to seize full control of Ukraine’s Luhansk Oblast.
Vadym Skibitsky, the deputy head of GUR, said during an interview with Interfax-Ukraine that the Kremlin wants control of Luhansk before Russia’s upcoming presidential elections.
The country’s presidential election is scheduled to be held on March 15-17. Russian President Vladimir Putin is the overwhelming favorite to win what Western observers have said is a rigged contest. Though polling indicates Putin is popular among the Russian public, support for his war in Ukraine has begun to slip. Thus, victories such as the capture of Luhansk Oblast could give Putin something to show his people for the sacrifices of war.
“Before the elections, they want to reach at least the administrative borders of Luhansk Oblast,” Skibitsky told Interfax-Urkaine. “To have at least some success, something like Avdiivka, maybe somewhere else on some other front.”
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He continued: “There are key points: [the cities of] Kupyansk, Lyman and Avdiivka. Why Kupyansk and Lyman? To show that they have supposedly managed to return the territories that Ukraine liberated after the start of full-scale aggression. It would be symbolic. This is an element that would be used very actively in information and psychological operations, actions and the information space.”
Newsweek reached out to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs via email on Wednesday for comment.
Skibitsky said that in addition to reaching the administrative borders of Luhansk, Russia’s goals for the next six months includes taking control of Donetsk Oblast while holding on to territories it’s already taken in parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
“Holding means active defense or pushing us back to the positions from which we started our offensive,” Skibitsky said.
The areas under control in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts hold strategic value because they give Russia land access to Crimea.
“They need a logistics system that goes through Crimea to bring ammunition, equipment and personnel to the south,” the GUR representative said.
According to Skibitsky, Russia’s presidential election has caused Putin’s forces to shift focus in one section of Ukraine. He said three battalions of Russian soldiers were recently transferred from occupied Mariupol to Russia’s border region of Belgorod “to ensure the safety and conduct of the elections” following multiple Ukrainian strikes in the area.
With a likely Russian offensive coming in Luhansk and other areas, as well as the prospect of the war continuing for the foreseeable future, Skibitsky emphasized the importance of Ukraine building its defenses.
“We understand how important it is for us to have reserves, how important it is to have the support of our partners, to develop our production,” he said. “This nature of the Russian Federation’s actions, with the loud name of ‘offensive,’ implies a protracted war. A war of attrition.”
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.