Putin’s Key Ally Reveals Why He Hasn’t Launched Ukraine Invasion

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Alexander Lukashenko has rejected the prospect of Belarus entering the war in Ukraine started by his closest ally, Vladimir Putin, because that would “play into NATO’s hands.”

Lukashenko has relied on Putin to maintain power in Minsk following disputed presidential elections in 2020 and while he has allowed the Russian president to use Belarus as a springboard for offensives into Ukraine, he has avoided direct involvement in the war.

The stationing of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus and a deal signed in January cementing closer economic ties with Moscow, whose support Lukashenko relies on, have sparked speculation that Minsk could play a bigger role in Ukraine.

However, Lukashenko told reporters on Friday that “there is no such need and there will be no such need” to join the war.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko at the Kremlin, Moscow on April 12, 2024, in Moscow, Russia. He told reporters his country would not enter the war in Ukraine.

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This is in part because Russia needs a “peaceful, quiet” Belarus as a neighbor, as he disparaged the international community’s view of the country he rules with an iron fist as “co-aggressors” with Moscow in Ukraine.

“These calls urging Belarus to enter the war in Ukraine play into the hands of NATO. They are doing everything to drag us into a war,” he said, according to Belarusian state news agency Belta.

He gave other reasons for not entering the war, saying that such a move would mean the front would increase by thousands of kilometers. “We will have to close this front if we enter the war. Can we do it? We can’t.”

“If we were to join the hostilities, it wouldn’t change anything. They (Ukraine) barricaded the border with Belarus,” he said. “Ukraine mined it and deployed 120,000 soldiers.”

On April 6, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said “we do not see any plans” of a new Russian offensive coming from Belarus. The Belarusian opposition has said that direct involvement by Minsk was not likely, and could threaten Lukashenko’s hold on power in the country whose population opposes the war.

On Friday, Lukashenko also said that neither he nor Putin “want the fraternal Ukrainian people to suffer,” as he defended Russia’s strikes on energy centers as a proper response to Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries which have hit Russia’s war machine and major export.

“Ukrainians should understand that if they launch UAVs at facilities like an oil refinery, there will be a response that is 10 times stronger,” Lukashenko said.

Last month, Lukashenko visited his forces near the Belarusian border with Lithuania, a NATO member, and issued a threat to the alliance which is conducting military exercises in the Baltic state, saying “any provocation must be suppressed by armed means,” and that “if you violate the state border, you will be destroyed.”