Raiders Were Right to Fire Josh McDaniels, But Timing Seems Wrong

While the 2023 NFL trade deadline was largely quiet, there was still a major piece of football news. On Tuesday night, the Las Vegas Raiders announced that they had fired head coach Josh McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler.

“After much thought about what the Raiders need to move forward, I have decided to part ways with Josh and Dave,” owner Mark Davis said in a statement shared on X, formerly Twitter. “I want to thank them both for their hard work and wish them and their families nothing but the best.”

The sudden change was more of a move out of father Al Davis’ playbook than son Mark’s, but that’s irrelevant. The Raiders have officially turned the page.

And while the move certainly makes sense given the on-field product, the timing leaves something to be desired.

Raiders Regressed Under McDaniels and Ziegler

While the Raiders face the unenviable task of competing against the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West, McDaniels and Ziegler were supposed to help Vegas take a step forward. In reality, though, it has been the opposite.

In 2022, the club slipped backward, going from a 10-7 playoff team to a 6-11 squad. The offense, which was supposed to be McDaniels’ specialty, didn’t really improve; the unit’s output climbed by only 21 points across the campaign, despite the addition of star wide receiver Davante Adams.

Then, during the offseason, quarterback Derek Carr was replaced by Jimmy Garoppolo, whom McDaniels and Ziegler knew from their time in New England. While there was some logic to refusing to give Carr a massive contract, Jimmy G hasn’t delivered. Foot surgery affected his offseason, and things have gone downhill from there.

In 2023, the Raiders have gone 3-5 while being outscored 187-126. The offense has looked out of sorts. Beyond averaging a paltry 15.8 points per game, the Raiders haven’t made the most of their weapons. Adams has been publicly frustrated at multiple points and running back Josh Jacobs said that it wasn’t his job to fix the unit after Vegas’ disappointing loss to the Detroit Lions on Monday night. And wide receiver Hunter Renfrow, who was an impact player before McDaniels took over, has hardly seen the field.

Put all of that together, and it’s easy to see why a change took place.

The timing, however, does raise an eyebrow.

In Limbo After Post-Deadline Change

While hope springs eternal in professional sports—maybe the coaching change inspires the Raiders to play with pride, and they steal a wild-card spot—it’s unlikely that Las Vegas will make serious noise. They’re sitting at 3-5, which leaves them in 14th place in the current AFC playoff picture. The upcoming schedule includes two dates with the reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs, plus a matchup with the 6-2 Miami Dolphins.

So Vegas probably isn’t going to be a playoff team. And, if you’re going to be bad, then it would make sense to sell off some assets ahead of the trade deadline. Stockpiling draft picks might not be fun in the short term, but at least they’d provide some compensation for struggling down the stretch.

Without being inside the Raiders’ board room, it’s impossible to know why Davis moved when he did (he declined to comment when ESPN’s Adam Schefter asked about the reason for the firings). Maybe the Monday Night Football loss was too embarrassing to stomach. Perhaps the public comments from Adams and Jacobs had him fearing a locker room revolt.

But, at the end of the day, the club is now in an awkward limbo in which the rest of the year almost doesn’t matter.

A playoff berth will be the aim, but it’s probably out of reach. It’s unclear if interim head coach Antonio Pierce will remain in charge past this season. While he rose as high as associate head coach during his NCAA career, his NFL coaching resume dates back only to 2022, and the Raiders are “committed to undergoing a comprehensive search for a head coach once the season is complete.” That could remove the incentive to play hard for the metaphorical substitute teacher. And, as things currently stand, the club will land outside of the top five on draft night.

Could McDaniels and Ziegler have lost their jobs after the Week 7 loss to Tyson Bagent and the Chicago Bears? Sure, and that would have given the club more time to work ahead of the deadline. Davis could have even waited until after the trip to Detroit to gauge his team’s response before pulling the trigger on some trades.

By the same token, could the club have held on until the summer before cleaning house and doing a proper refresh in one fell swoop? While there are some risks to that approach—you don’t want to allow the locker room to get so toxic that things can’t recover—there’s something to be said for making the change when the subsequent dominoes can actually fall.

Again, it’s possible that something pushed Davis into action after the trade deadline and he decided to act promptly for the sake of his team. That potential timeline, however, hasn’t been made public. All we know is that the Raiders didn’t make any moves and then, hours later, decided to change their head coach and general manager.

In isolation, is moving on from McDaniels and Ziegler a net positive? Based on what we saw on the field, that’s probably true. Personnel moves, however, don’t happen in a vacuum. And now, even if there’s a light at the end of the tunnel, the Raiders will have some growing pains to work through, now and when the next regime arrives.