According to most the recent American Principles Project/On Message survey of Hispanic voters in Arizona and Nevada, Donald Trump and Joe Biden are in a statistical dead heat, 43 percent to 44 percent.
This result is a far cry from what Democratic operatives predicted in 2012, when journalist Ronald Brownstein coined the term “the coalition of the ascendent” to describe the minority, young, and affluent white voters who were key to President Barack Obama’s reelection. Democrats back then believed Hispanic voters were an essential part of this coalition and that, as they grew in numbers, they would continue to support Democrats, especially as the party embraced a more progressive cultural agenda.
Over a decade later, it is clear these expectations were dead wrong. Poll after poll shows a growing percentage of Hispanics have been voting Republican. What’s more, the data clearly reveal one of the main reasons for this shift is that Hispanics are greatly turned off by the woke policies the Democratic Party is pushing.
How did we get here? First, let’s understand what did not happen. Republicans did not suddenly earn the trust of Hispanic voters in Arizona, Nevada, or anywhere else in the country. It’s far more accurate to say that Democrats lost the trust of most Hispanic voters over the past decade. Nonetheless, this represents a tremendous opportunity for conservatives in general and the Republican Party, specifically.
Modern American progressivism runs counter to the core principles that inform the worldview of most Hispanic voters. In fact, one could say that the Left today is openly hostile to the ideology, philosophy, and theology of a large majority of Hispanic Americans.
The Arizona and Nevada survey provides ample evidence of this fact. Sixty-seven percent of respondents agreed that public schools spend too much time teaching controversial topics “and should instead stick to the basics and leave issues like sex and racial issues to parents.” Over 75 percent agreed that “entrepreneurial spirit and hard work have allowed many in the Hispanic community to succeed in America and most government regulations simply get in the way.” Nearly 80 percent agreed that “many in America are too focused on race, which only divides us and causes social tension.” And 89 percent agreed that “much of the success of the Hispanic community in America is the result of our shared family values and work ethic.”
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These data points strongly suggest Hispanic voters are far more aligned with core conservative principles than anything the Democrats have believed for decades. More to the point, Hispanic voters are very much at home with the conservative populism that has been the ideological and cultural hallmark of the Trump era.
All of this, of course, raises an important question: Will the shift of Hispanic voters away from the Democrats continue, and what can Republicans do to accelerate this movement?
The answer likely rests on two considerations. First, the Republican Party must lean into the cultural battles that have alienated Hispanics from Democrats. The last four years suggest they are doing just that. And second, Republicans must move quickly to integrate Hispanics into the party.
We’re not talking about another “Hispanic outreach” program. No matter how well funded, Hispanic voters would quickly identify such a program as a phony attempt to superglue them to the GOP. If, however, there is a real effort to assimilate Hispanics into the Republican Party from top to bottom, they will come in droves. That’s because the vast majority of Hispanics are highly aspirational and want to fully achieve the American Dream. Those values mean far more to them than someone’s last name or skin tone.
The results of the APP/OnMessage poll indicate that a seismic realignment is happening with Hispanic voters across the country. And just consider: If Hispanic voters split in either Arizona or Nevada, Trump will win the state. That’s a near statistical certainty. And if Trump were to win both states, he would be well on his way to winning the presidency.
In an interesting twist of fate, the voters Democrats once imagined would be central to their “ascendent” coalition may soon help Republicans ascend back to the White House. If anything, it is an important reminder that in politics, one can never take the status quo for granted.
Alfonso Aguilar is Director of Hispanic Engagement for American Principles Project and former Chief of the U.S. Citizenship office under President George W. Bush. Wes Anderson is a founding partner of OnMessage Inc. and has been a leading Republican pollster for over 30 years.
The views expressed in this article are the writers’ own.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.