Ukraine’s forces are facing huge equipment losses and Western-provided training often does not suit the kind of warfare they are engaged in, according to the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).
“Attempts at rapid breakthrough have resulted in an unsustainable rate of equipment loss,” the London think tank said in a report released on Monday.
In the report, RUSI gave its assessment of the challenges that Ukraine faces as it enters the fourth month of its counteroffensive, which is aimed at recapturing Russian-occupied territory.
It said that whatever progress Ukraine makes in the push, further offensives will be needed to achieve the liberation of Ukrainian territory and that as the war stretches into winter and next year, Kyiv’s allies must keep up their commitment to maintain momentum against Russian aggression.
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RUSI’s conclusions were drawn from a case study of tactical actions over two weeks in the villages of Novodarivka and Rivnopil, which lie across the border between Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
It said that Ukraine is suffering heavy rates of equipment loss, “but the design of armoured fighting vehicles supplied by its international partners is preventing this from converting into a high number of killed personnel.”
“It is vital that Ukrainian protected mobility fleets can be recovered, repaired and sustained,” the report continued.
However, “this approach is slow” and the approximately 700–1,200 yards of progress every five days made by Ukrainian troops, was “allowing Russian forces to reset.”
While Moscow’s forces have suffered high rates of artillery and tank losses, RUSI said they had inflicted sufficient equipment losses on Ukraine in the early phases of its push to degrade the reach of Ukrainian manoeuvre. “In short, Russia achieved tactical success in preventing a breakthrough.”
As Russian forces faced high attrition rates, they made adaptations such as increasing the depth of their minefields, dispersing electronic warfare (EW) systems and being more precise in how they directed their firepower.
“The exploration of technological tools for conducting standoff mine reconnaissance would be of considerable benefit to Ukrainian units,” said the RUSI report.
It also said Kyiv’s counteroffensive was limited by staff capacity at battalion and brigade levels and that training of staff “would significantly assist Ukrainian forces.”
But this would only help if training was in tune with the structure that Ukraine employs, “rather than teaching NATO methods that are designed for differently configured forces.”
In a piece published last week, the Kyiv Independent reported accounts from NATO-trained Ukrainian soldiers detailing how they felt “in over their heads” in facing better-equipped Russian troops.
One soldier from the 32nd Separate Mechanized Brigade fighting east of Kharkiv in the northern sector of the front said NATO officers don’t understand the reality on the ground.
Sergiy Zgurets, the head of the military analytics center Defense Express, told the outlet that NATO training focusing on urban combat meant less focus on required skills such as how to smoke an enemy out of a trench, building an assault group and coordinating it with artillery and drone support.
RUSI said that Ukraine’s counteroffensive requires fires dominance and that it was critical to ensure this advantage by properly resourcing ammunition production and spares.
“It is vital that Ukraine’s partners assist the country’s preparations for winter fighting, and subsequent campaign seasons now, if initiative is to be retained into 2024,” added the think tank, which along with the Ukrainian defense ministry, has been emailed by Newsweek for comment.