Russia ‘Capitalizing’ in War as U.S. Aid to Ukraine Continues to Stall: ISW

Russia is “capitalizing” on the battlefield in Ukraine as U.S. military aid remains held up in Congress, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Ukraine has heavily relied on weapons and ammunition supplied by the U.S. and other allies while fighting off invading Russian forces for more than two years. Despite some significant Ukrainian successes during the war, Russia has scored a series of victories in recent months that have put Kyiv on the back foot.

Some of Ukraine’s European allies this year have stepped up by offering Ukraine increased aid. However, Russia’s successes have coincided with the stalling of U.S. military aid since the year began. While bipartisan support for aid is significant, some House Republican lawmakers have offered stiff opposition to President Joe Biden’s request to send Kyiv more than $60 billion.

In a report published on Monday, ISW, the U.S.-based think tank, said that Ukrainian military officials have repeatedly warned that the lack of aid will negatively impact Kyiv’s “ability to defend against current and future Russian offensive operations forecasted to begin in late spring and summer.”

Ukrainian forces had become particularly “degraded” in the eastern part of the country due to an increasing deficit in military equipment and supplies, according to ISW. The think tank argued that Ukraine’s misfortunes were directly tied to the U.S. continuing to “withhold” aid.

“Ukrainian forces’ ability to repel recently intensified Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine has degraded due to materiel shortages and will likely continue to degrade in the near future should delays in US security assistance continue,” the ISW report states.

“ISW continues to assess that Russian forces are currently capitalizing on Ukrainian materiel shortages resulting from the lack of US security assistance to make marginal tactical advances,” it adds, before warning that “future Russian assaults” would result in more “threatening gains” if the U.S. continues “to withhold assistance to Ukraine.”

A White House spokesperson told Newsweek that the Biden administration had been repeatedly “highlighting the critical need for Congress to pass the National security supplemental request” when asked to comment on the ISW report.

Newsweek reached out for comment to the office of House Speaker Mike Johnson via email on Monday night.

The Senate voted in favor of a $95 billion aid package in February that includes $60 billion of military aid to Ukraine, $14 billion to Israel, $8 billion to Taiwan and around $10 billion in humanitarian assistance. However, the bill has been stalled in the House since, due to GOP opposition.

Following Iran’s drone and missile attack on Israel over the weekend—carried out in response to Israel’s deadly attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria—Johnson on Monday announced plans to break the stalled package into separate bills, including a standalone vote on aid to Ukraine.

Aid to Israel—which has less GOP opposition than Ukraine aid—would also be addressed in a standalone vote. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said that the White House would oppose a standalone Israel aid bill on Monday.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky compared support for Israel to support for Ukraine in his nightly televised address on Monday, saying that the U.S., the U.K., France and Jordan “acted together and with maximum efficiency” to help Israel defend against Iran’s attack before lamenting that similar support had not been given to Ukraine.

“‘Shaheds’ [Iranian drones] in the skies above Ukraine sound identical to those over the Middle East,” Zelensky said. “The impact of ballistic missiles, if they are not intercepted, is the same everywhere.”

“European skies could have received the same level of protection long ago if Ukraine had received similar full support from its partners in intercepting drones and missiles,” he added. “Terror must be defeated completely and everywhere, not more in some places and less in others.”