Russia may decide to make “significant changes” to its anticipated summer offensive as Ukraine prepares to receive long-awaited military aid from the U.S., according to a new assessment.
“The Russian military has likely been assessing that Ukrainian forces would be unable to defend against current and future Russian offensive operations due to delays in, or the permanent end of, US military assistance,” the U.S.-based think tank, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on Saturday. “This assumption was likely an integral part of Russia’s operational planning for this summer.”
Ukrainian officials have warned that Russia will likely mount a renewed offensive push on its defenses this summer, starting as early as the end of May. Kyiv has also stressed that delays in vital military aid have been hamstringing its ability to fight back against recent Kremlin gains in the east.
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On Saturday, the U.S. House of Representatives approved more than $60 billion in aid to Ukraine, which had been stalled for months by political infighting. The Senate will now vote on the package, before it heads to President Joe Biden for sign-off.
The aid will take weeks to arrive on the battlefield and start to make a difference, during which time Ukraine will likely lose more ground to Russia, the ISW assessed. Moscow may also “take advantage of the limited window before the arrival of new U.S. aid” to up its attacks.
“The Russian military command will likely consider significant changes to the large-scale offensive operation that it is expected to launch in June, although it may still proceed as planned,” the ISW said. But Kyiv “will likely be able to blunt the current Russian offensive assuming the resumed US assistance arrives promptly.”
Newsweek has reached out to the Russian Defense Ministry for comment via email.
Ukraine has been contending with biting shortages of crucial supplies, including ammunition for its artillery systems and interceptor missiles for its air-defense systems. As stocks run down, Kyiv has signaled that Russia is amassing 100,000 troops for a concerted push or replenishment of its ranks.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had warned that Ukraine would lose the war if Congress did not approve the new military aid. In a statement on Saturday, he hailed the package passed by the House of Representatives as “very significant,” adding: “We appreciate every sign of support for our country and its independence, people, and way of life, which Russia is attempting to bury under the rubble.”
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.