The Russian military is likely suffering its highest casualty rates since the start of the war in Ukraine as Moscow continues its offensive to capture the eastern Ukrainian town Avdiivka, according to British intelligence.
Both sides have suffered heavy losses since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The U.K.’s Ministry of Defense noted in a report on Monday that Russia’s casualties through November have been running at a higher daily average than in previous months, as per reporting by Ukraine’s General Staff of the Armed Forces.
According to Ukrainian sources, Russia is losing on average 931 troops a day during fighting in November. In comparison, the Ukrainian General Staff reported in March—the same time that Moscow’s assault on the city of Bakhmut was at its height—that Russia was losing an average of 776 troops a day.
Newsweek was unable to independently verify Russia’s casualty rates. An email has been since to Russia’s Defense Ministry for comment.
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“The last six weeks have likely seen some of the highest Russian casualty rates of the war so far,” U.K.’s Defense Ministry said in its report.
The report noted that it was unable to verify Ukraine’s estimates, but said that the numbers seemed “plausible” when taking into account the number of troops both killed and wounded.
British intelligence officials previously predicted that Russia was likely to suffer “significant losses” in its fight to take Ukraine’s chemical plant located in Avdiivka, a town in the Donbas region that is viewed as a gateway between Kyiv and Russian-occupied territories in eastern Ukraine. Russia has poured in thousands of troops and military equipment to the front lines around the village since October 10.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia’s latest offensive effort toward Avdiivka, which Ukrainian officials said began on November 22, is unlikely to advance Moscow’s control in the area. The think tank noted that Moscow is likely relying on weaker mechanized capabilities than previous offensives after weeks of brutal fighting, which has led to losses in Russia’s weaponry stash as well.
“Russian forces have lost a confirmed 197 damaged and destroyed vehicles in offensive operations near Avdiivka since October 9, and the Russian military appeared to spend the end of October and all of November preparing for a wave of highly attritional infantry-led ground assaults to compensate for these heavy-equipment losses,” the ISW said in a recent update on the war in Ukraine.
The think tank added that Russian ground assaults may pose a challenge to Ukraine’s control of Avdiika but “will not lead” to Russia’s success in the area.
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