Russian troops have approached within a mile of Chasiv Yar, although Moscow is unlikely to seize the Donetsk city in the coming months, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has said.
Following the capture of Avdiivka on February 17, Russian forces have continued their push in the region as they try to make the most of Ukraine’s depleted arms and ammunition before another Western tranche of aid for Kyiv arrives.
Some Russian sources have said Moscow’s push in the Bakhmut area, which started in November, would set the stage for more intense offensive operations to encircle and seize Chasiv Yar, which lies around 50 miles north of Avdiivka.
But since then, Russian forces have only achieved marginal tactical gains northwest and west of Bakhmut. The Russian Ministry of Defense said Saturday that its forces had seized Ivanivske, west of Bakhmut and east of Chasiv Yar.
On Sunday, Russian military bloggers said Moscow’s troops had advanced up to the outskirts of the city, although the ISW stated that this had not been independently verified.
Cristopher Rogel Blanquet/Getty Images
In any case, the Washington, D.C.-based think tank said that the chance that the city, which had a pre-war population of around 12,000, would be encircled or seized by Russia in the coming months, was “unlikely.:
The ISW said satellite imagery showed that Ukrainian forces had made ring-shaped fortifications around the area which Russian forces will likely struggle to break through their current offensive tempo.
“The seizure of Chasiv Yar would offer Russian forces limited but not insignificant operational benefits if they could achieve it,” said the ISW, which added that achieving this would not be rapid, “if they can take it at all.”
Newsweek reached out to the Russian Defense Ministry for comment.
It comes as Ukraine’s ability to fight Russian aggression is hampered by hold-ups in Western aid, and a $60 billion package for Kyiv faces an uphill battle to be approved by the Republican-controlled House of Representatives.
Representative Michael McCaul, the Texas Republican who leads the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told CBS on Sunday that House Speaker Mike Johnson, who has opposed the aid, will soon introduce a Ukraine aid bill.
McCaul said that Johnson’s “commitment is to put it on the floor after Easter,” although noted that he is in a “very difficult spot.”
This is because he could be removed from his speakership following a motion filed by Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene last week triggered by Johnson’s reliance on Democratic support to pass a $1.2 trillion government funding deal.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.