In stark contrast to Ukraine’s grinding, painful efforts to restrain Russia’s march westward in eastern Ukraine, Kyiv is plugging away at Moscow’s valuable Black Sea Fleet with stunning success.
Ukraine’s military suggested that three of Russia’s vessels—two large landing ships, plus a possible hit on a reconnaissance vessel Ukraine has previously targeted—could have been impacted by Ukrainian missile strikes on the Crimean port city of Sevastopol late on Saturday.
Russia has attempted to fortify its Black Sea bases against Ukrainian drones and missiles. It has wielded decoys to confuse Kyiv’s operators, British intelligence assessed last week, and Moscow has announced it will beef up the protection around its fleet with large-caliber machine guns to shoot down incoming naval drones before they strike Russian vessels.
But its adaptation has been slow—very much to the Black Sea Fleet’s detriment, argued Marina Miron, a post-doctoral researcher with the War Studies Department at King’s College London.
Photo-illustration by Newsweek/Getty
The Black Sea Fleet has only had a limited role in supporting Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, and remains the “prime vulnerability” for Russia’s military, she told Newsweek.
In the latest of Ukraine’s strikes, Kyiv said on Sunday it had attacked two of Russia’s large landing ships, the Yamal and the Azov, and a communications hub in Sevastopol, as well as other unspecified infrastructure facilities. Open-source intelligence accounts and Russian military bloggers reported that Ukraine had used Western-supplied air-launched Storm Shadow and SCALP cruise missiles to strike the Crimean port.
A total of 18 missiles rained down on Sevastopol, with Russian air defenses managing to intercept 11 of them, according to independent Russian outlet, Astra.
In an updated statement on Monday, Kyiv’s military intelligence agency said it had attacked one of Russia’s ship repair plants in Sevastopol, where the Yamal was docked. The landing ship is in a “critical” condition, with a hole in its upper dock, the GUR said in a statement.
“We can confirm that both landing ships were damaged,” said Captain Dmytro Pletenchuk, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s navy, according to Ukrainian media. “One of them immediately went for repair.”
A third vessel may have been caught in the weekend’s attacks, Pletenchuk said. Kyiv is verifying whether Russia’s reconnaissance ship Ivan Khurs may have sustained damage on Saturday, Pletenchuk said. The vessel was “likely” damaged, the spokesperson told the United States-backed Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.
Two missiles struck the Ivan Khurs, Astra reported, citing anonymous sources. Russian authorities in Crimea had reported a “massive” missile strike on Sevastopol on Saturday night. Russia’s Defense Ministry did not respond to a Newsweek comment request.
The Ivan Khurs carried equipment used to coordinate and carry out operations with Russia’s warships and aircraft, retired Ukrainian Navy Captain Andrii Ryzhenko told Newsweek. It is one of two of this type of reconnaissance vessel, Miron added.
The extent of the damage to Russia’s Black Sea Fleet vessels has not been verified, but the strikes nonetheless reflect a pattern of Ukrainian successes in targeting Moscow’s assets around Crimea.
Back in December, the U.K. Defense Minister, Grant Shapps, said the Kremlin had lost 20 percent of its Black Sea Fleet in the previous four months. In the first few months of 2024, Ukraine has taken out a litany of vessels, including a missile-armed corvette, several landing ships and a patrol ship.
Russia has now lost upwards of a quarter of its combat ships and boats in the Black Sea, Ryzhenko said. Russia’s fleet is still capable, he said, but the looming threat of Ukraine’s naval drones has herded the vessels into the confines of its bases.
Ukraine’s missile and drone strikes are not just limiting the vessels to their bases, but to bases far from Ukraine’s littoral waters. Moscow has relocated assets to Novorossiysk, a port city perched in internationally-recognized Russian territory and further east in the Black Sea.
Reports have also suggested the Kremlin is planning a new military base at the port of Ochamchire in Abkhazia, a breakaway region of Georgia. This would put Russian Black Sea assets even further from Ukraine’s coastline.
The British Defense Ministry evaluated last week that Russia had likely restricted most of its operations to the eastern Black Sea. With Ukraine’s strikes continuing to damage both the vessels and Moscow’s dominance of the western Black Sea, its not clear how well Russia will be able to preserve its Black Sea Fleet from Ukraine in the next few months.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.