Russia has been forced to deploy troops with “poor morale and limited combat effectiveness” due to its “shortage of credible combat units,” according to the British Ministry of Defence.
The latest UK Defence Intelligence update claims Russian forces “likely withdrew in bad order” from south of the key Donbas city of Bakhmut, allowing Ukraine to recapture “at least a kilometre of territory.”
Moscow has spent the past few months struggling to capture Bakhmut, a city of limited strategic value that has assumed symbolic importance to both Russia and Ukraine. Russian forces “fled from the flanks” over the past few days, in response to Ukrainian counterattacks, according to Yevgeny Prigozhin, who heads the pro-Kremlin Wagner Group which is doing much of the fighting in Bakhmut itself.
In its latest update posted on Saturday, British Defence Intelligence said: “Over the last four days, elements of Russia’s 72nd Separate Motor Rifle Brigade (72 SMRB) likely withdrew in bad order from their positions on the southern flank of the Bakhmut operation. Ukrainian forces regained at least a kilometre of territory.
“The area has some tactical significance because it was a Russian bridgehead on the western side of the Donets-Donbas Canal, which marks the front line through parts of the sector.”
The update continued: “72 SMRB is an element of Russia’s 3rd Army Corps, a formation created in Autumn 2023 and dogged with allegations of poor morale and limited combat effectiveness.
“Its deployment to such a demanding and operationally important sector highlights Russia’s severe shortage of credible combat units.”
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On Friday Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar claimed Kyiv’s troops had advanced around two kilometers (1.2 miles) near Bakhmut.
However, Moscow has denied reports of a Ukrainian breakthrough, with the Russian Defense Ministry insisting on Friday that the “overall situation in the area of the special military operation is under control.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described fighting around Bakhmut as “very tough” during an interview with Bosnian Serb broadcaster ATV which was released on Wednesday.
He said: “We have no doubt that [Bakhmut] will be taken, it will continue to be held.
“But I can tell you one thing: Yes, indeed, [it’s] quite an emotional situation. Very tough offensive operations are being carried out there.”
Ukrainian forces are widely reported to be preparing for a counter-offensive, following the delivery of additional Western weaponry including modern tanks.
In an interview for Eurovision News, broadcast for the BBC, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said, “We need to wait” before launching the attack.
In a reference to military supplies, he added: “We are still expecting some things.
“They will reinforce our counteroffensive and most importantly they will protect our people. We are expecting armored vehicles, they arrive in batches.”
Earlier this week the UK announced it had delivered Storm Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine, which have a range of over 155 miles.