Russia’s “third wave” of assaults on the eastern Donetsk town of Avdiivka is unlikely to lead to a rapid Russian advance in the area, a think tank has said.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) a U.S.-based independent think tank, made the assessment in its latest analysis of the conflict in Ukraine on Friday. Ukrainian officials had said that Russian forces began a renewed offensive effort towards Avdiivka on November 22.
Clashes have been increasing in intensity near the town of Avdiivka, which has been described as the gateway to the city of Donetsk. Russia has poured in thousands of troops since October 10, as well as tanks and armored vehicles, in an attempt to seize Avdiivka. Moscow’s forces have reportedly suffered high losses of troops and equipment. Newsweek has contacted Russia’s Defense Ministry via email for comment.
Ukrainian commander Oleksandr Tarnavskyi said on his Telegram channel Thursday that Russian troops began a third wave of assaults on Avdiivka, and Tavriisk Group of Forces Commander Brigadier General Oleksandr Shtupun added that this “third wave” started on November 22.
The ISW said Russian forces likely renewed its push on the town with weaker mechanized capabilities than in the previous offensive waves that occurred in October.
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The ISW added that Shtupun said that Ukrainian forces destroyed three Russian tanks and seven armored fighting vehicles on November 22.
This suggests that Russian forces are “currently conducting a smaller set of mechanized assaults than in October,” the ISW said.
“Russian forces have lost a confirmed 197 damaged and destroyed vehicles in offensive operations near Avdiivka since October 9, and the Russian military appeared to spend the end of October and all of November preparing for a wave of highly attritional infantry-led ground assaults to compensate for these heavy-equipment losses,” the think tank added.
The ISW said that large infantry-led ground assaults will likely pose a significant threat to Ukrainian forces defending in the Avdiivka direction but “will not lead to a rapid Russian advance in the area.”
A Russian military officer also gave an interview to Russian media outlet RTVI this week, and said Ukraine is so far successfully repelling Russia’s offensive on Avdiivka.
“They are completely holding back our offensive on Avdiivka,” said military officer Roman Saponkov in the interview that was published on Thursday.
Independent Russian news website Pravda reported on Thursday that Russian forces detonated a 500-kilogram (about 1,100lb) explosive charge in a tunnel under a Ukrainian position. It said the powerful blast left Kyiv’s military with no opportunity to push back against the advance, “and all the defensive fortifications of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were quickly captured by a Russian attack aircraft.”
It is reportedly a new tactic recently adopted by Russia to get close to Ukrainian positions in Avdiivka.
“As for the Russians’ tactics. Our war is often compared to World War I. On the Avdiivka front [the Russians] have started using the tactic of digging tunnels. They’re digging them close to our positions. First, [this aids with] concealment. Second, they can then unexpectedly emerge close to our positions,” Anton Kotsukon, spokesperson for Ukraine’s 110th separate mechanized brigade, was quoted by Ukrainska Pravda, a Ukrainian online newspaper, as saying.
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