Russia’s Warships Face ‘Big Trouble’ in Black Sea, Kyiv Says

Russian naval forces in the Black Sea face “big trouble” as Ukraine looks to press its asymmetric offensive against Moscow’s military shipping and infrastructure in the region, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky’s top adviser.

Speaking at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington, D.C. on Tuesday, Andriy Yermak—the head of the presidential office in Kyiv—told attendees Ukraine is still notching victories despite the underwhelming results of its stalled counteroffensive operation in the south of the country, which has been underway since early June.

“We already liberated 50 percent of the territory that was occupied [since the full-scale invasion began on February 24, 2022,] Yermak said. “We are practically, today, making big trouble for the Russian fleets in the Black Sea.”

Ukraine’s repeated successes in the Black Sea over the past year are in stark contrast to its struggles on land. Ukraine has consistently used its naval drones, cruise missiles—provided by Western partners—and unmanned aerial vehicles to strike key Russian naval assets.

At least 19 Russian military vessels have been attacked since February 2022, according to the Oryx open-source intelligence website, of which 12 have been destroyed. Among them are the former Black Sea Fleet flagship Moskva, the Rostov-on-Don attack submarine, and the Askold corvette.

Ukrainian attacks have also destroyed key dry dock facilities in the Crimean port of Sevastopol, and partially demolished the Black Sea Fleet headquarters building in the city, which has for decades been the nucleus of Moscow’s influence in the area.

Some of Russia’s most advanced vessels have now reportedly abandoned Sevastopol for safer waters. Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry by email to request comment.

Ukraine has no conventional navy of note, but its arsenal of drones and anti-ship and cruise missiles have forced Russian ships away from the country’s southern coast. Kyiv has smothered any danger of an amphibious operation against Odesa, and its special operations units have even been able to liberate strategic outposts in the Black Sea.

“Their goal is basically to suffocate us economically,” Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Ukraine’s former defense minister and now an adviser to the Defense Ministry, previously told Newsweek. “The only way to get out of this situation is to destroy the Black Sea Fleet, to destroy their capability to pursue the occupation of the Black Sea and restore freedom of navigation.”

“The only thing we can do is destroy the Black Sea Fleet and say that any new ship in the area will follow the previous ones,” Zagorodnyuk—who is now the chairman of the Centre for Defence Strategies think tank in Kyiv—added.

Russia’s Black Sea blockade—paired with drone and missile strikes against Ukrainian port infrastructure—has created a punishing export crisis. But Ukraine has still been able to open new shipping corridors.

“After Russia [left] the grain initiative, which was settled with the help of Turkey and the United Nations, we are creating new corridors,” Yermak said on Tuesday. “These new characters [are already working] and these are recognized by everybody, including Turkey.”

Yermak traveled to Washington, D.C. this week as part of a high-level Ukrainian delegation seeking to revitalize American support for Kyiv as the 2023 fighting season draws to a close with no sign of an imminent Russian collapse.

“Ukraine has a concrete plan, and we’re now working with our allies and partners to finalize this plan for the next year,” Yermak said, urging expanded U.S. financial and military support for Ukraine. “We’d like [the war] to end and we’d like to win as soon as possible,” he added. “It’s very difficult for our people, but Ukrainians are still very motivated…people believe and are sure that we will win.”

Kyiv’s lack of progress, though, has renewed calls abroad for negotiations with the Kremlin kleptocracy, even though President Vladimir Putin has shown no sign of downgrading his war goals or easing his confrontation with the “collective West.”

Ukrainian officials consider any settlement short of full territorial liberation per its 1991 borders merely a pause in, not an end to, a decades-long conflict with Moscow that turned hot in 2014.

“We need to treat the disease, not its symptoms,” Yermak said on Tuesday. “Negotiations with the terrorists always end in only a fragile ceasefire. The key to peace lies in depriving their puppet masters of power.”