Scientists Now Know the Future of Blizzards in the US

The frequency of U.S. blizzards may decline in coming decades, a new study has found.

Between 1996 and 2020, there were 13,000 blizzards recorded in the U.S. with 10,000 of these striking the Northern Plains and the Upper Midwest region.

But new research from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln has found that the average number of blizzards could start declining in the next few decades.

“Blizzards have a huge impact on a lot of our daily life—infrastructure, transportation,” Liang Chen, an assistant professor of Earth and atmospheric sciences at the university, said in a summary of the findings. “In terms of planning for climate change, people want to know: In the future, how will these blizzards change because of the warming climate? But there is no study looking at how they will change in the future, based on climate simulations. The major reason is: It’s hard to quantify.”

There have recently been milder winds and lighter snowfalls in the U.S. due to the warming climate, which in turn could affect the severity of blizzards.

Until now, these weather events have been hard to track using climate data. But using a new model, Chen and colleagues used daily snowfall and wind speed data to analyze the amount of blizzards occurring. They then used this model to estimate the long-term future, in years between 2030 to 2059, to 2060 to 2099.

They tested these years alongside estimates of future greenhouse gas emissions. The results showed that a gradual decline in these winter storms was likely, considering the warming climate. Blizzards are expected to decrease in the Midwest and the Northeast of the country.

When homing in on different states, the scientists found that Iowa could see 10 fewer days per year of strong winds. Minnesota, Kansas, Nebraska, and the Dakotas will also see less wind.

Snow will also become less common as the global temperature increases. However, precipitation was estimated to increase in the Northern Plains.

“Because of higher temperature, precipitation will fall to the ground as rainfall instead of snow,” Chen said. “So even though you have an overall increase in precipitation, your snowfall will decrease.”

Although the researchers have estimated that blizzards could decrease in numbers overall, there are more questions that need to be answered.

It is possible that these blizzards may strengthen or weaken as a result of climate change, but more studies are needed to assess this.

Next steps for Chen are to analyze why blizzards increase or decrease between decades.

“Most of my previous research was about the extreme summer events, like heat waves, drought and heavy precipitation,” Chen said. “But severe winter weather is also impactful, especially in Nebraska, and we are interested to see its trajectory in a warming climate. I hope our study can provide a good understanding of winter extremes and benefit our local community.”

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