The democracies of the world ought to pay shut consideration to peace talks this weekend in Brussels, the place European Council President Charles Michel will host Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in hopes of resolving a long time of enmity which have been marked by bouts of preventing ever since a 44-day warfare in 2020.
That is as a result of whereas in principle they intention to resolve a simmering battle between two smallish international locations within the South Caucasus, on the desk is a minimum of a microcosm of the worldwide conflict between democracy and tyranny—and the very credibility of the rules-based world order that the West claims to champion.
The talks come simply days after Azerbaijan upped its ongoing aggression towards Armenia—which had hitherto been principally gunfire—by shelling the mining city of Sotk in Armenia correct. These assaults are brazen violations of a ceasefire that ended the 2020 warfare launched by Azerbaijan. Every time, exploiting the dearth of worldwide media on the bottom, Azerbaijan claims falsely it was provoked. The gaslighting normally achieves its objective of making a lazy “clashes” narrative.
TOFIK BABAYEV/AFP through Getty Pictures
That 2020 ceasefire was brokered by Russia, the successor nation to the Soviet Union, which dominated each combatants till the collapse of communism some 30 years in the past.
That created a uncommon alignment between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the West, with all seemingly invested in peace within the South Caucasus. However right now Putin could also be extra curious about sustaining chaos to divert consideration away his actions in Ukraine. It’s telling that Aliyev signed a strategic alliance settlement with Moscow simply days earlier than Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Whereas there are few instances of black and white in geopolitics, this one provides a fairly stark distinction. It’s one which illustrates properly the correspondence between personalities and actions, and the correlation between tyranny at house and the inclination to make warfare.
Pashinyan is the elected chief of a younger democracy—an historic middle of civilization that right now is primarily in attracting tourism to its monasteries, vineyards, mountaineering trails and eating places, in addition to technological innovation. He fairly persistently requires peace.
Aliyev heads a hereditary family-run dictatorship, linked by the Pandora Papers to nearly $1 billion in illicit belongings squirrelled away overseas and described in leaked U.S. intelligence cables as a film mafia boss. Regardless of vital mineral wealth in oil, pure gasoline, and extra, the nation’s per capita GDP of $5,000 is about the identical as Armenia’s. A lot of the blame for that may be laid at Aliyev’s ft.
Alongside the periodic and generally lethal cease-fire violations, Azerbaijan has since December been blockading the area of Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian-populated enclave inside the Soviet-delineated borders of Azerbaijan.
Recognized to Armenians as Artsakh, the world is on the coronary heart of the battle between the 2 international locations. For 3 a long time it operated as an autonomous area inside Azerbaijan, and within the 2020 warfare Aliyev seized a lot of it. The Azeris proceeded to desecrate church buildings and erase traces of Armenians within the half they seized—and the blockaded sector now’s the rump that continues to be.
The 120,000 ethnic Armenians residing there have confronted a humanitarian disaster all winter whereas making an attempt to withstand Aliyev’s clear try at ethnic cleaning.
Furthermore, Armenia, which makes no territorial claims upon Artsakh, now faces direct threats to its sovereign territory as properly. Azerbaijan, whose largest ethnic group is taken into account Turkic, seeks a hall by means of Armenia to Turkey, and has referred to as for the dissolution of Armenia solely.
It’s good that the 2 sides are lastly sitting down—however the hosts and all onlookers shouldn’t view this as a easy case of squabbling tribes whose claims have equal validity. In a good world, Aliyev needs to be accorded the identical pariah standing as his pal within the Kremlin.
There’s greater than precept at stake: america and the European Union have an curiosity in affect in a unstable and pivotal a part of the world. Aliyev desires validation and power offers with the West, and he could also be coaxed into leaving Armenia alone. Certainly, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken stated final week {that a} peace deal is “inside attain” and “tangible progress” had been made between the 2 international locations.
For Armenia, that wants t embody recognition of sovereign Armenian territory together with a assure of rights and safety for the individuals of Artsakh.
I imagine that’s achievable if the world stands agency. Peace talks ought to by no means be used as a canopy for succumbing to the threats of a bully. It will solely invite extra thuggery, all around the world.
Sheila Paylan is a world legal lawyer and human rights knowledgeable who has served greater than 15 years as authorized advisor for the United Nations. She consults for quite a lot of worldwide organizations.
The views expressed on this article are the author’s personal.