The showdown over the debt ceiling is looking like a solvable problem for the first time in months.
On Thursday, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy offered the first glimmer of hope since negotiations over the debt limit began, telling reporters on Capitol Hill, “I see the path that we can come to an agreement.”
Time is running out for House Republicans to strike a deal with the White House as the June 1 deadline inches closer. On Monday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reaffirmed that timeline, writing to McCarthy that in order to avert a government shutdown, the federal borrowing cap needs to be lifted or suspended within the next three weeks.
Although McCarthy said both sides hadn’t “agreed to anything yet,” he said there’s a “structure” to the negotiations that he supports—a departure from what he’s said on the talks up until now.
Just two days earlier, McCarthy had said that House Republicans and the White House remained “far apart” after meeting with President Joe Biden on Tuesday. Speaking outside the White House, the California Republican said it was “possible” for a deal to be reached by the end of the week. Before Tuesday, both sides seemed unwilling to budge from their positions and Biden had accused the House GOP of “holding our economy hostage.”
John Pitney, a political scientist at Claremont McKenna College, told Newsweek that while McCarthy seems optimistic about an agreement, there are still a myriad of factors that could blow up a deal.
“McCarthy might see a path, but the path runs across a minefield,” Pitney said.
McCarthy is likely walking a fine line between keeping up morale within his caucus, holding out hope that Republicans will get what they want, and keeping the conversation with Biden going, according to Pitney.
With such a slim majority in the House, rank-and-file GOP members have significant influence over the party. A number of conservative firebrands have already proven they’re capable of thwarting McCarthy’s agenda.
Earlier this year, McCarthy struggled to clinch the speakership as dozens of the House’s most conservative members held out their votes until McCarthy made a series of concessions to secure their support. Among those promises was a rule change that would allow just one member of the House to try to oust a speaker from their office.
“If McCarthy gives up too much, he could be subject to a GOP motion to vacate,” Pitney said.
It’s not only McCarthy who will have to play his cards right in order to avoid a historic default, but also Biden, who could lose the support of more progressive Democrats if he caves into too many of McCarthy’s demands.
“If Biden gives up too much, progressives could break off and vote no,” Pitney said.
A group of Senate Democrats has already cautioned Biden that he should “prepare to exercise [his] authority under the 14th Amendment” to raise the debt ceiling.
In a Thursday letter, 11 senators led by Vermont’s Bernie Sanders told the president, “We cannot reach a budget agreement that increases the suffering of millions of Americans.” Progressives in the House will also issue something similar, Representative Pramila Jayapal, the chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, told Axios.
On Thursday, an unnamed senior House Democrat told the outlet that “There’s a growing and legitimate concern among progressives that the keys have been handed over to the White House.”