Strikes on Ukraine’s Most Prized Assets Raise Alarm

As Russia appears to enjoy a run of success targeting some of Ukraine’s most prized equipment, Moscow is reaping the rewards of both evolving tactics among its soldiers and the bite of military aid shortages in Kyiv.

Within approximately the last two weeks, Russia has said its forces have destroyed a handful of Ukrainian-operated Abrams tanks and Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, and U.S.-donated HIMARS, or High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems.

Russia has claimed throughout the war to have destroyed HIMARS, which arrived in Ukraine in the summer of 2022. Footage circulated online earlier this month appears to confirm the loss of one Ukrainian HIMARS for the first time.

On Wednesday, Russia’s Defense Ministry published footage appearing to show a cluster munition strike on Ukrainian transport helicopters in eastern Ukraine. Moscow said it had destroyed two out of the three helicopters.

Ukraine also frequently publishes footage it says shows dramatic strikes on Russia’s own expensive and valuable equipment and has suggested it is adapting to Russia’s new electronic warfare tactics. And, in mid-October 2023, Kyiv announced it had received a U.S.-supplied cluster variant of ATACMS, also known as Army Tactical Missile System, which was used in damaging attacks on Russian helicopters in Moscow-held Ukrainian territory.

Newsweek has contacted Russia’s Defense Ministry and the Ukrainian military.

The apparently successful strikes on Ukrainian equipment Russia has doggedly targeted in quick succession likely reflects both an adapting Moscow and gaps in Ukraine’s Western-dependent arsenal, experts have suggested.

“It seems the Russians are learning,” said Frederik Mertens, an analyst with the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies.

“There is a degree of learning and adaptation happening on the battlefield,” agreed Marina Miron, a postdoctoral researcher with the War Studies Department at King’s College London.

Striking key Ukrainian assets quickly after locating crucial systems “is a vital part of modern warfare, and it would be odd if the Russians would not start to master it after two years of brutal experience,” Mertens told Newsweek.

Russia has rolled out new strategies on the battlefield, that have proved to be effective, added Ivan Stupak, a former officer in Ukraine’s security service who advises the Ukrainian parliament’s national security, defense and intelligence committee.

Russian reconnaissance drones are extensively patrolling the battlefield and reach behind Ukrainian lines, before immediately transmitting data on Ukrainian targets to Russian missile units, he told Newsweek. Russian missiles can then strike these assets within just a few minutes, he said.

Russia has improved its intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities through leveraging drones electronic warfare systems, and Moscow has also improved how precise its missiles are, Miron told Newsweek.

There are other factors at play in Russia’s recent run of success, Miron argued. Russia has been able to grasp some control of the skies to deploy these new types of missiles that are hard for Ukraine to intercept, and the scarcity of Ukraine’s ground-based air defense systems has contributed to this, she said.

Ukraine is reliant on its Western backers for aid, but replenishment of its supplies has spent months languishing in U.S. Congress. The U.S. Defense Department unveiled a $300 million package on Tuesday, calling the resources “a short-term stop gap.”

The new package, “while providing urgent capabilities to Ukraine’s forces, is nowhere near enough, and the only way to meet Ukraine’s battlefield needs is for Congress to swiftly pass the supplemental,” the Pentagon press secretary, Major General Pat Ryder, told the media.

Russia has been slowly making gains westward in recent months, including taking the strategic eastern city of Avdiivka in mid-February. Ukraine has labored to prevent Russian gains on land, a stark contrast to the slew of triumphs it has had against Moscow’s Black Sea naval fleet.

But the likes of Abrams tanks have only recently reached the frontlines, because Ukraine had been holding them back, she said. With restraints placed on Ukraine’s ability to camouflage its key equipment, and the fact that heavy Western tanks are little suited to patches of muddy terrain across Ukraine, Moscow is having more success taking out Kyiv’s equipment, she said.

“The operations and tactics have changed, calling for the use of specific equipment as the Russians are launching attacks across the entire line of contact,” Miron added. “It is a combination of factors which leads to the current destructions of Western equipment.”

“The battlefield is survival of the fittest in its most pure and merciless form,” Mertens added.

To fight back effectively, Ukraine needs to up the number of electronic warfare systems it has access to, jamming Russia’s reconnaissance drones and protect Kyiv’s assets, Stupak said.

Ukraine also needs more radars to detect these reconnaissance drones as they approach, he added.