Okay. We nonetheless don’t know why Tucker Carlson is out at Fox* however we all know the place he’s going. He’s organising store at Twitter, cheered on by Elon Musk.
Subsequent query: Can he become profitable there?
To be clear, cash isn’t the one cause Carlson needs to be on Twitter. And if he was most desirous about cash, he in all probability wouldn’t go wherever in any respect within the close to future since doing so looks likely to kick off a legal fight with Fox concerning the the rest of his very profitable contract. Carlson needs to be on Twitter as a result of he needs consideration — each typically and within the runup to the 2024 elections.
However Carlson additionally likes cash, and Fox reportedly paid him $20 million a year. Can he make something like that on Twitter? I believe he can.
My intestine says that Musk has already promised Carlson that he’ll pay him as a lot or greater than his Fox paycheck to come back to Twitter. In spite of everything, when you’ve already incinerated tens of billions of {dollars} to purchase Twitter, why not shovel a number of million extra onto the hearth? Bringing the most well-liked and highly effective host on cable TV information to his platform ensures we’ll proceed to concentrate to Musk. And to Musk, consideration is priceless.
Musk, for what it’s price, says “we’ve got not signed a deal of any form by any means” with Carlson, and if Musk have been a standard particular person, I’d encourage you to parse that assertion for potential loopholes — possibly there’s a verbal deal however not a signed one? However because it’s Musk, who simply makes issues up, I wouldn’t trouble spending power on that. Perhaps he’s telling the reality, possibly he’s not.
For now, Musk needs to make use of Carlson as a high-profile check case for his pitch that Twitter can develop into a full-fledged media platform, one the place Free Thinkers can arrange store and become profitable with out having to fret concerning the Woke Thoughts Virus. (He’s already trying to make the case to Don Lemon, who was fired from CNN the identical day Fox fired Carlson.)
So let’s speculate about what Carlson might truly do on Twitter if he wished to attempt replicating his Fox present on the positioning.
Some beginning assumptions: Since Carlson needs each cash and the highlight, he’ll desire a hybrid method. Which implies Carlson superfans will pay as much as watch all the pieces he does, through a subscription providing, and Carlson can even promote free ad-supported clips on the positioning.
Let’s additionally assume that though entrepreneurs have fled each Carlson’s present on Fox and Twitter below Musk’s possession, there will likely be some advertisers who’re prepared to connect themselves to a Carlson Twitter present.
At Fox, Carlson averaged round 3 million pay TV viewers per episode. And Fox additionally says it has greater than 1 million subscribers for Fox Nation, its (previously) Tucker-heavy streaming service.
It’s not a given that somebody who’s very talked-about on one platform will replicate that viewers on a brand new platform (ask Carlson’s former coworker Megyn Kelly about that). And asking Carlson’s older followers to change from linear TV to a smallish social community will increase the issue. And even in a best-case situation, solely a fraction of Carlson’s followers can pay to see him.
However for argument’s sake, let’s say that Carlson is ready to replicate his paying Fox viewers with free Twitter viewers (with an enormous push from Musk, who will most definitely put this thumb on Twitter’s algorithmic scale to ensure he will get most publicity).
In that case, right here’s some very back-of-the-envelope math, made with enter from individuals who used to work at Twitter.
Carlson’s “I’m back” video, which he revealed Tuesday, has racked up greater than 22 million views, however that’s as a result of he’s a information story. As soon as the novelty wears off, if he might get 3 million views on every of his free movies** and put out 4 clips a day, 5 days per week, 52 weeks a 12 months backed by adverts purchased at a charge of $4 for each 1,000 views — you possibly can think about an advert enterprise that generates some $12.5 million a 12 months.
And if Twitter took the usual 20 % advert fee it used for its “Amplify” video program, Carlson would web about $10 million a 12 months, earlier than manufacturing prices. (For those who don’t like these numbers, be at liberty to swap in your personal. If Carlson might common 6 million views, as an example, that gross quantity would double to $25 million. Additionally keep in mind that some Twitter advert models are skippable after a number of seconds, and people are inclined to have a 50 % skip charge, which might dramatically lower his take.)
What about subscriptions? Right here we’ve got to get much more speculative. If Fox might get greater than one million $6-a-month subscribers for a Fox + Tucker streaming service, what number of might Carlson get on his personal? Let’s say it’s 250,000. That pencils out to $18 million a 12 months, minus the 15 % to 30 % that Apple and Google cost for in-app purchases made on their cell working methods. So, $12.6 million to $15.3 million, earlier than manufacturing prices.
Would Twitter take a lower of that? Who is aware of? Musk has beforehand tweeted that creators on his platform would keep all of their revenue for the primary 12 months they bought subscriptions and that Twitter would take a 10 percent cut after that. Twitter’s subscription FAQ, in the meantime, presents a totally completely different set of numbers and terms, and Twitter’s fine print at the moment says that the phrases are completely as much as Twitter and will change each time.
Additionally, Twitter is owned and operated by Elon Musk, who makes it up as he goes and doesn’t pay his bills. So it might get … difficult.
However sure, squint at it. Think about that Tucker Carlson followers will observe him from TV to Twitter and that a few of them — together with some advertisers — can pay him, and you possibly can think about that Carlson might make extra on Twitter than he did at Fox. (And, once more, you must also think about that Carlson has some sort of Musk assure that this may occur no matter efficiency.)
Now take that cash and issue within the highlight that Musk will completely shine on Carlson’s each utterance (at the very least till he will get uninterested in it). We’ve seen only a few cases of primetime old-media stars replicating their success on-line, however this might be considered one of them.
* No, I don’t consider he received fired as a result of he privately texted one thing that sounded similar to what he mentioned on the air on a regular basis.
** Be aware that almost all of Carlson’s present Twitter movies have achieved a lot smaller numbers.