The Problem With Donald Trump’s Ukraine Plan

Former President Donald Trump has made no secret of his intention to end Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine as quickly as possible if he wins a second term in the White House later this year.

But that is not necessarily good news for Ukraine. Trump has repeatedly said he would prioritize a quick peace, even if that means leaving President Vladimir Putin in possession of swaths of Ukrainian territory conquered by force of arms since 2014.

For President Volodymyr Zelensky and his compatriots—most of whom back the government’s official intention to liberate all land per Ukraine’s 1991 borders and join NATO—a Trump return could prove disastrous.

The Washington Post cited unnamed sources with knowledge of the matter in its report this week that Trump, if elected in November, will push Ukraine to permanently cede the occupied Crimean Peninsula—seized by Russia in 2014—and the entire eastern Donbas region consisting of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts to Moscow in exchange for a peace deal.

Trump adviser Jason Miller told the New York Post there was no truth to the report. “The whole thing is fake news from The Washington Post,” he said. “They’re just making it up.”

“President Trump is the only one talking about stopping the killing,” Miller added. “[President] Joe Biden is talking about more killing.”

The Kremlin press office—headed by President Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov—told Newsweek in a statement on Wednesday that it was aware of the speculation as to Trump’s intentions in Ukraine.

“We have seen reports on this, but so far, no initiatives have been announced by Donald Trump,” Peskov’s office said. “Therefore, it is impossible to make estimates.”

An Elusive Peace

There appears little hope of revived peace talks more than two years into Russia’s full-scale invasion. Ceasefire negotiations began within hours of the February 24, 2022 attack, but in subsequent weeks and months fell apart amid subterfuge, emerging evidence of Russian war crimes, and the vast gap between Kyiv’s and Moscow’s respective demands.

Neither side has shown any willingness to downgrade their war goals. Ukraine wants Russian forces to withdraw from all occupied territory, for Moscow to pay reparations, and for Russian leaders to face war crimes charges. Kyiv also foresees its future in the European Union and NATO.

Russia, meanwhile, has never downgraded its ambition to dismantle the Ukrainian state and reverse the country’s westward political, economic and cultural trajectory. Meanwhile, the Kremlin has repeatedly framed its war of aggression as a pre-emptive strike against NATO.

Trump believes he is the master of dealmaking, though his first-term foreign policy record was mixed. If he returns to the Oval Office, the divisive president will face his toughest challenge yet.

“I don’t think that it will be enough for Russia,” Oleg Ignatov, the Crisis Group think tank’s senior analyst for Russia, told Newsweek of Trump’s reported Crimea-Donbas concession plan.

The Washington Post also reported that a permanent block on Ukraine joining NATO may be included in Trump’s peace blueprint. Ignatov said that will be “more interesting” for Putin and his allies in Moscow.

“It’s not a war for territories at all,” he explained. “I would say it’s a war about Ukraine’s course, Ukraine’s policy and rapprochement with the West…They want guarantees that Ukraine is a neutral state and will not be a NATO member.”

“If there was a deal that Ukraine is neutral, Russia will be one of the guarantors of this deal,” Ignatov added. “For Russia, it’s a good thing.”

For Ukraine, that would be bad.

“Any peace plan cannot violate territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine,” Oleksandr Merezhko, a member of the Ukrainian parliament and the chair of the body’s foreign affairs committee, told Newsweek.

“Those politicians who suggest or imply that Ukraine should make territorial concessions in exchange for ‘peace’ don’t seem to understand that Putin’s goal is not to occupy and annex Crimea and eastern part of Ukraine; his ultimate goal is to destroy Ukraine as a state, to deprive Ukrainians of our statehood and national identity,” Merezhko added.

“It’s hard to say what Trump really thinks because so far he has not given concrete details of his vision of peace in Ukraine and Europe.”

A Wider Showdown

U.S.-Russian relations were frosty the last time Trump assumed office. For all his fawning over Putin, Trump did not merely lie down for the Kremlin. The administration imposed a raft of sanctions on Moscow during Trump’s term, supplied lethal assistance to Ukraine, tightened the screws on Russian partners in China and Iran, and expelled Russian spies from the U.S.

But it is still widely believed that Putin would prefer a second term Trump than a second term Biden, though the Russian leader has publicly claimed he would prefer the latter.

“Biden, he’s more experienced, more predictable, he’s a politician of the old formation,” Putin said in February. “But we will work with any U.S. leader whom the American people trust.”

Moscow, Ignatov said, does not believe that a Trump victory would guarantee success for the Kremlin. “I don’t think they’re overly optimistic about him right now,” he said.

“They understand that any U.S. president will have to follow the policy which is in U.S. interests…They hope for a situation in which the interests of the future U.S. administration and Putin’s interests will coincide; if Trump agrees that Ukraine should not be a NATO member, for example.”

“They’re not going to stop the war because of Trump, and if Trump doesn’t give them what they want.”

But Trump is an unpredictable leader. He and his supporters take great pride in the former president’s foreign policy machismo. Trump “doesn’t have any interest in a deal that could be presented as a failure,” Ignatov added. “He wants to find a win-win scenario.”

Moscow, meanwhile, wants Ukraine out of the equation. Putin and his top officials have repeatedly made clear they do not consider Ukraine to be a sovereign independent actor. Kyiv, in the Kremlin’s view, is a hollow puppet of Washington, D.C.

“I don’t think a win-win scenario for Russia and Ukraine is possible,” Ignatov said. “But a scenario when the U.S. and Russia will get back to some kind of common understanding—I think the Russians believe it is possible.”

Regardless, more fighting is likely to precede Kyiv concessions. “It’s difficult to imagine that any deal could be achieved just by diplomacy” Ignatov added. “Russia will have to not only defeat Ukraine, but to inflict a big defeat on Ukraine. Ukraine will have to lose not one time, but several times, considerably.”

In Kyiv, leaders are still trying to press home the message that Ukraine is merely the first hurdle for Putin’s revanchist Russia. “Putin views this war as a war against NATO and the West,” Merezhko said. “If he wins, he will present the victory as one over the U.S. and NATO. And U.S. credibility will be seriously damaged in the eyes of its allies.”

“While he is alive, he will continue war,” the politician added. “After his removal or death history will repeat itself, just like after [former Soviet Union leader Joseph] Stalin’s death. But before he dies, he will kill thousands and thousands of people.”

“This is the most tragic part of the war. After his death, Russians will be blaming all the crimes on him, saying it was not us, it was only him. That’s why when the window of opportunity opens, we should quickly join NATO and guarantee our security once and for all.”