From the moment Donald Trump first announced his candidacy for president in June 2015, he has dominated the Republican Party, turning it from an establishment zombie party into an energized populist, grassroots force. After a hugely successful four years in the White House driven by a transformative America First policy agenda, Trump continues to stand astride the GOP like a Colossus. No one else even comes close, which is why the Republican primary field has been frozen for months.
Trump has enjoyed a commanding lead over all GOP presidential aspirants since early spring. He’s currently ahead by a whopping 60 percent nationally. The last time a candidate had a lead this big was George W. Bush in 2000, who won all but seven states during the primary that year.
Trump is also way ahead in the key early states. Recent polling has Trump leading his closest competitor, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, by over 30 percent in Iowa and ahead by 30 points in New Hampshire. Polling in other states, including DeSantis’s home state, show similar Trump dominance. Meanwhile, the betting odds put Trump at a 71.2 percent chance to win while DeSantis trails with an 8.4 percent chance.
Most significantly, Trump is the only Republican candidate who is consistently tied with or beating President Biden nationally and in most of the key swing states. GOP voters now realize that in order to win back the White House, Trump’s the one.
It wasn’t always this way.
In January, DeSantis was the favorite in betting markets to win the primary. He was at 50.8 percent, while Trump trailed with a 28.4 percent chance of winning. Likewise, polling showed a tighter race earlier this year. For example, in January a University of New Hampshire poll found DeSantis leading Trump by 12 percent. Nine months later, UNH’s poll had the former president up by 26 percent. That’s an astonishing 38 point swing toward Trump.
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Unfortunately for DeSantis, the more voters have gotten to know him, the more his numbers have dropped. He somehow has to reverse that trend in the two months before the first voters go to the polls.
DeSantis has staked it all on winning the Hawkeye State, saying that the “reality” on the ground is different than the polling, but his own campaign has repeatedly hinted that a “strong second” is good enough. To be clear, DeSantis’ own pollster shows him losing.
DeSantis is also running low on money, which is bad news given how many many deep-pocketed GOP donors initially backed him. His campaign recently reported just $5 million of cash on hand to spend on the primary. The Trump campaign reported over $37 million cash on hand.
Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and Senator Tim Scott both have fuller coffers than DeSantis and yet are also way behind Trump in fundraising and available cash. Scott has about $13.3 million cash on hand, while Haley has approximately $11.5 million.
Scott is struggling to gain traction. While he may qualify for the November 8 GOP debate, his Super PAC recently announced that it’s cancelling a planned TV ad buy.
Haley appears to be in the strongest position among the non-Trump candidates. She is running second in both New Hampshire and South Carolina, is within single digits of DeSantis in Iowa and has escalated her attacks on the Florida Governor—but she is also still far behind Trump. And Vivek Ramaswamy, the dynamic entrepreneur with deep pockets of his own, who made a splash by running as a new generation America First candidate has since lost ground, falling behind in polling and buzz.
In 2024, any candidate running a quixotic campaign against Trump is bound to meet a grisly political end. As president, Trump earned an approval rating of roughly 90 percent from Republican voters, the vast majority of whom remain fiercely loyal to him, particularly given the endless political persecution he’s enduring at the hands of Democrats. No other GOP candidate can overcome that deep emotional bond.
So why are these other candidates still in the race?
Some may truly think they can win or are still buying the hype of their high-priced campaign consultants that they’re viable. Some may be playing a long game, positioning themselves as the default candidate should Trump be derailed by his myriad legal challenges. Others may be angling for a Cabinet position, cable TV gig, book deal, and higher speaking fees that come from greater name recognition. Still others appear to luxuriate in being the anti-Trump attack dog.
Whatever their motivations, they should understand that the main beneficiaries of a protracted primary will be Biden and the Democrats. Unless the fundamentals of the race change drastically and rapidly, Trump’s challengers are wasting precious time and resources trying to weaken Biden’s inevitable opponent.
So if they really care about the Republican Party and the country, as they all say they do, then they should end their campaigns and rally behind Trump, as Larry Elder just did. The GOP needs to be unified to win in 2024 and deal with America’s grave challenges.
The longer the also-rans hang on, the worse it’s going to be for them, the Republican Party, and the country. Many of them can still salvage their political futures and win back the support of America First voters by endorsing Trump now. It’s time to close ranks behind Trump and make America great again, together.
Monica Crowley is the Host of the Monica Crowley Podcast and served as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury from 2019 to 2021.
The views expressed in this article are the writer’s own.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.