The grueling war in Ukraine could accidentally escalate in three scenarios, according to a new report, as the conflict enters its 20th month with few signs of ending.
Several situations involving NATO countries and Russia could trigger a significant escalation of the war, a new report from the RAND Corporation has argued, namely a future Russian strike on Ukrainian territory that kills NATO officials, operations against U.S. military equipment that claim U.S. lives, or Moscow misinterpreting NATO actions as a sign of intervention in Ukraine, the U.S.-based non-profit think tank has said.
Countries supporting Ukraine and those aiding Russia’s war effort have balked at the prospect of escalating the conflict, which could mean the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons or war spreading to neighboring nations in Eastern Europe.
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said in mid-July that increases in NATO military aid for Ukraine meant that “World War III is getting closer,” while Ukraine has said a wider conflict in Europe would fall on NATO should it fail to pull through with military aid for Kyiv.
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NATO has promised Ukraine future membership of the alliance, but should this occur while the war is still being fought, the alliance would be obligated to protect Ukraine with the full might of its power under Article 5. This provision views an attack on one member state as an attack on all, demanding a response from the alliance, and makes the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO before the end of the war very unlikely.
But NATO countries building up higher-readiness forces and long-range strike capabilities in close proximity to Russian territory, along with talk of Ukraine quickly joining the alliance, “could convince Moscow that it is on a slippery slope to direct NATO intervention,” the RAND report said. While the Kremlin could then pursue a ceasefire agreement, Russian President Vladimir Putin could also opt to pre-emptively attack NATO targets to “degrade NATO capabilities or deter a future intervention by underlining Russia’s willingness to bring the war directly to NATO countries,” according to the report. NATO could then either be deterred, or look to retaliate through military action, the analysts argued.
And should a Russian strike on Ukrainian territory kill NATO officials—even unintentionally—this could also mean increased pressure on the alliance to attack Russia. Again, Russia could opt to pre-empt the alliance’s response and strike first, the report suggested.
Newsweek has contacted NATO for comment.
The deaths of U.S. military personnel in or around the Black Sea could also precipitate a crisis, the report added. The Black Sea, southern mainland Ukraine and the annexed Crimean peninsula have increasingly become hot spots for Russian missile strikes and Ukrainian operations in recent months.
If “aggressive Russian maneuvers” against a crewed U.S. surveillance aircraft led to U.S. deaths, U.S. politicians “would face pressure to respond, possibly by targeting the Russian aircraft or supporting base involved,” the RAND report theorized.
“Russia may view any U.S. response strike as highly escalatory, leading Putin to consider retaliatory strikes,” it concluded.
The possibility of the conflict escalating will likely remain throughout the war, meaning that the safeguards against escalation, like diplomatic communications with Russia, are needed “to help disrupt such spirals,” the think tank said.
The U.S. has sought throughout to position itself away from direct confrontation with Russia, despite rhetoric from Moscow’s most senior officials suggesting the Kremlin is pitted against Washington.
But the U.S. “is not at war with Russia, nor do we seek a war between NATO and Russia,” a Pentagon spokesperson told Newsweek earlier in September, adding that Russia could de-escalate the war “right now by withdrawing its forces from Ukraine.”