Tim Scott officially entered the fray for the Republican nomination for president on Friday, ending more than a year of speculation that South Carolina’s junior senator would be among those vying to face off against President Joe Biden, a Democrat, in 2024.
Scott’s campaign officially filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) to enter the growing GOP field, throwing down the gauntlet ahead of his formal announcement in his hometown of North Charleston on Monday morning.
Before making his case against Biden, however, the pragmatic Republican who made history as the first Black man to represent the state in Congress will first have to rise above a field in which he is a distant challenger to presumptive frontrunner Donald Trump, who is the by-and-large leader of a field that could soon include several current and former governors alongside former administration officials like former Vice President Mike Pence.
In addition to well-known figures like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and potential dark horse candidates like North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum who are weighing presidential bids themselves, Scott will have to separate himself from figures like former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson and his state’s former Governor Nikki Haley, who tapped him from his seat in Congress to fill the void left behind by retiring Republican Senator Jim DeMint in 2012.
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And while many observers consider Scott to have the type of upside that could appeal to a broad swath of the Republican Party, polls—at least as they stand now—leave him with a lot of ground to gain.
At this point in the race, Trump still commands a more than 53 percent (and growing) share of the Republican electorate’s support in aggregate polling compiled by FiveThirtyEight, with DeSantis the next-closest challenger at a shade under 21 percent. In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, Trump polls well ahead of Scott, with a survey by the prestigious Harvard/Harris poll released Thursday showing Trump with a 79-21 advantage over Scott in a two-person contest.
Speaking to reporters from Newsweek and other outlets earlier in the week, senior campaign officials for Scott’s campaign downplayed early polling in the race, noting that at this juncture in the 2016 presidential election cycle, figures like former Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker—rather than Trump—were then-considered the leading threat to Republican candidate Jeb Bush’s path to the nomination.
For Scott’s campaign, the senator plans to focus on a largely optimistic message that defies the fire-throwing approach like Trump and DeSantis, pinning their prospects on the gamble that voters are seeking a positive message from their candidates instead.
Still, Scott is a relatively unknown entity nationwide. According to Thursday’s Harvard/Harris poll, a broad swath of the country still has either not heard of Scott or has no opinion of him. However, Scott’s campaign said those that get to know Scott like him.
While facing a much-weaker candidate in the 2022 midterm elections, Scott outperformed South Carolina’s Republican Governor Henry McMaster’s victory over a Democratic challenger by nearly 5 points statewide last year—a similar margin by which Scott outperformed Trump in the state during the 2016 election cycle.
Even with low name recognition, there could be significant potential for growth. For those that have heard of Scott, his net favorability rating in Harvard/Harris’ polling currently sits at a +7, while Trump—who has faced nagging doubts over his electability after two consecutive defeats in the popular vote—currently sits at a -1 net favorability rating with the nation’s voters.
Meanwhile, Scott’s campaign is already looking to exploit that appeal aggressively. Early Friday morning, Axios reported that Scott—by-and-large the race’s biggest fundraiser thus far—had already booked $5.5 million in advertising in early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire ahead of the first Republican presidential debates in August in an effort to get his message out to the public.