Florida is bracing for a possible hurricane as forecasters warn that a weather system off the coast of Mexico is strengthening as it moves north.
The system developed into Tropical Depression Ten off Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula on Saturday afternoon. It was about 30 miles from Cozumel, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said on Sunday.
“The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by Tuesday,” the center said in a 4 a.m. advisory.
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Forecast models show the storm, to be named Idalia if no other tropical storm forms before it, moving across the Gulf of Mexico towards Florida before making landfall along the Gulf Coast north of Tampa, then traveling diagonally across the state to emerge again in the Atlantic Ocean near southeast Georgia.
Forecasters warned that the storm could bring a dangerous storm surge, heavy rainfall and strong winds to Florida’s Gulf Coast and Panhandle by the middle of the week.
“Although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these impacts, residents in these areas should monitor updates to the forecast of this storm and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place,” the hurricane center said.
Good Sunday morning to everyone- here are the Key Messages for Tropical Depression Ten. Interests in the southeastern United States, especially Florida, should be monitoring the progress of this system. pic.twitter.com/RFJr9DfSvx
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) August 27, 2023
On Saturday, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for most of the Gulf Coast. The declaration covers 33 of the state’s 67 counties.
In a statement, the governor said he issued his executive order “out of an abundance of caution to ensure that the Florida Division of Emergency Management can begin staging resources and Floridians have plenty of time to prepare their families for a storm next week.”
He added: “I encourage Floridians to have a plan in place and ensure that their hurricane supply kit is stocked,” he said.
The current forecast models do not show the storm’s center approaching the areas of southwest Florida devastated by Hurricane Ian last year. Ian came ashore as a Category 4 hurricane in September last year, and caused more than $112 billion in damage and more than 150 deaths directly or indirectly.
Earlier this month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season could be much busier than initially forecast.
The NOAA said it now predicts between 14 and 21 named storms over the 6-month hurricane season ending on November 30, up from the May forecast of 12 to 17.
The new prediction says between six and 11 could become hurricanes, with two to five possibly becoming major hurricanes. An average year has 14 named storms.
Newsweek has contacted the National Hurricane Center for comment via email.