Four months into its counteroffensive, Ukrainian forces are making progress on the southern front after breaking through in Verbove earlier this week, as shown by the latest maps shared by the Institute for the Studies of War (ISW).
Verbove is a village in the Zaporizhzhia oblast, a few miles east of Robotyne, which was captured by Ukrainian troops on August 28. It is on the path towards Tokmak, which Ukrainian General Oleksandr Tarnavsky—who is leading Kyiv’s troops on the southern front line—described to CNN as “the minimum goal” of the country’s campaign.
In its latest update on the situation on the front line, the ISW confirmed that Ukrainian troops “have broken through Russian field fortifications west of Verbove,” though it specifies that these are not the “final defensive line in Russia’s defense in depth in western Zaporizhzhia oblast.”
Commercial satellite images back Tarnavsky’s statement, showing that Ukrainian forces have brought heavy equipment closer to Verbove in the past few days, according to the ISW.
ISW
The Washington D.C.-based think tank, which has been following the unfolding conflict in Ukraine since the beginning of the Russian invasion on February 22, 2022, said that Kyiv troops are “deepening” their presence in the Zaporizhzhia region, but that the rate of their advance near Verbove “remains unclear.”
According to the ISW, Moscow’s troops still control parts of the long trench line between Robotyne and Verbove, where Ukrainian infantry are “slowly and systematically” fighting through Russian fighting positions. The think tank confirmed that the Kremlin’s forces have more field fortifications beyond Verbove.
“[The] ISW continues to assess that the Russian military does not have sufficient forces deployed to this sector of the front to completely man its defenses in depth and that Ukrainian forces should be able to operate through Russian field fortifications more rapidly if they are not properly manned,” the think tank wrote.
Newsweek has contacted Ukraine’s Defense Ministry for comment via email.
The institute confirmed Ukraine has made progress this week and said it has “likely destroyed the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade”—part of the Black Sea Fleet—in western Zaporizhzhia.
The simultaneous counteroffensives in Bakhmut in the east of the country and southern Ukraine are weakening Russian troops and preventing Moscow from replenishing its numbers, according to the think tank, “as Russia redeploys its new reserves to defend against Ukrainian advances.”
Tarnavsky said that the Ukrainian counteroffensive will continue in the winter.
“We have one goal—liberation of our territories,” he said. “However hard it is we will keep on working. And I want to thank even the skeptics, their criticism also influences our task’s success.”
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