Ukraine May Not Launch Next Counteroffensive Until 2025: UK Military Chief

Ukraine might be unable to mount a new counteroffensive against Russia until 2025, according to the head of the U.K.’s armed forces.

Ukraine launched a highly successful counteroffensive against Russia in September 2022, managing to retake a significant amount of territory captured by Moscow during the early days of the war. A second major counteroffensive launched last summer was far less successful, with Kyiv mustering much smaller gains.

Admiral Sir Tony Radakin suggested during a meeting in London on Tuesday that the next counteroffensive would “most likely” be launched next year, as the Ukrainian military increasingly “struggles” with Russian forces two years after the invasion began, according to The Guardian.

Speaking at an event hosted by British think tank Chatham House, Radakin said that the “shorter term position for Ukraine” was “undoubtedly a tough one.” He said that Kyiv had recently demonstrated “real success” in attacks on Russia’s Black Sea fleet, while there was “a much tougher situation on land.”

“Ukraine is struggling in terms of its ammunition and its stockpiles and [it is] imperative for the rest of the world to respond to that,” Radakin said. “At the tactical level, you’re seeing some Russian success gaining relatively small amounts of territory.”

“I think that’s a predicament that’s likely to last at least for the next few months,” he continued. “And then we will have to see the Ukraine response with a new military leadership there.”

Newsweek reached out for comment to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense via email on Tuesday.

Radakin suggested that Moscow was in a far less favorable long-term position in Ukraine, arguing that all of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s initial “strategic objectives” during the war had “failed.”

“I am not saying that Russia is not dangerous,” Radakin said. “It has demonstrated that with the aggression it employs both domestically and internationally. But at the same time it is also significantly less capable than we anticipated.”

The U.S.-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggested on Monday that Russia had achieve a “theater-wide initiative” that would allow it to launch attacks at the time and place of their choosing. ISW said that Ukraine “could deny Russia these opportunities” if able to “pursue their own offensive operations in 2024.”

While still suffering heavy losses, the Russian military has seemingly gained the upper hand in the war in recent weeks, with Ukraine having withdrawn from multiple settlements near the captured Donetsk city of Avdiivka over the last few days alone.

Ukraine’s difficulties on the battlefield come following a dramatic reduction in military aid from Western allies this year. Approximately $60 billion in U.S. aid requested by President Joe Biden remains held up amid partisan gridlock in Congress.

French President Emmanuel Macron said on Monday that the possibility of aiding Ukraine by placing Western troops in the country should not be “excluded,” despite concerns of the conflict expanding to include NATO and potentially sparking a new world war.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and several leaders of NATO member states, including Germany, the Czech Republic and Poland, quickly rejected the suggestion of sending troops to Ukraine.