Ukraine Seizes on Russians’ Internal Wranglings in Kherson

Russian forces on the east bank of the Dnieper River—known as the Dnipro in Ukrainian—in southern Ukraine are reportedly juggling internal strife with Kyiv’s ongoing efforts to break open a front that could prove a serious threat to Crimea.

The Ukrainian Euromaidan Press website on Sunday reported that Kyiv’s forces along the Dnieper “are actively taking advantage of the problems inside the Russian army,” the most pressing of which is a “conflict between their soldiers and commanders” which the outlet said has escalated to the point of Russian soldiers refusing orders to attack Ukrainian positions on small islands in the river.

“The revolt has spread to other detachments that are operating along the riverbank,” the pro-Ukrainian outlet wrote. Newsweek is unable to independently verify the reports and has contacted the Russian and Ukrainian defense ministries by email to request comment.

Ukraine’s success in establishing several small footholds on the Russian-occupied east bank of the river represents a major development on the southern frontline, which since the liberation of Kherson in November 2022 has been largely static due to the formidable barrier of the Dnieper.

While Russian and Ukrainian forces elsewhere have been pressing large offensive operations, fighting across the Dnieper has been characterized by small amphibious raids, artillery exchanges and drone strikes. In recent months, though, Kyiv has been able to build out a presence of hundreds of troops in the small east bank settlements of Krynky, Pishchanka and Poima.

The fighting has reportedly brought Ukrainian troops within a few miles of the M-14 highway; a major logistical route running from western Russian through occupied southern Ukraine and to Kherson.

Ivan Stupak—a former officer in the Security Service of Ukraine and now an adviser to the Ukrainian parliament’s national security, defense and intelligence committee—has told Newsweek there are some 300 Ukrainian troops operating on the east bank, most of them Marines.

“I’m very sure that this operation could potentially be successful,” Stupak said. “At least a couple of pieces of heavy equipment have also been transferred to the left bank.”

The ultimate goal for Kyiv, Stupak said, might be the Black Sea port of Skadovsk, the occupation of which could cut off Russian forces defending the Kinburn Spit and put Crimea under “fire control” of Kyiv’s U.S.-made HIMARS.

Russian counterattacks have failed to dislodge the Ukrainians from their beachheads. The Institute for the Study of War said on Sunday that Ukrainian units “continued ground operations” on the eastern bank, though “did not make any confirmed gains. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces maintain positions on the east bank and are conducting counterbattery fire in the area.”

The think tank cited Russian milbloggers as claiming that fighting continued around Krynky—some 18 miles northeast of Kherson City and a mile from the Dnieper—but added that “the tempo of fighting has decreased due to fog and rain.” The ISW said: “Russian milbloggers claimed on December 2 and 3 that Ukrainian forces continued attempts to transfer reinforcements and supplies to positions on the left bank.”

The ISW said on November 29 that Russia’s “failure to establish a cohesive command structure” on the east bank “continues to degrade Russian morale and combat capabilities.”

Russian forces are also grappling with the effects of recent bad weather as storms and freezing temperatures herald the end of the 2023 fighting season.

“The consequences of the November 27 cyclone in the Black Sea continue to impact Russian military infrastructure in left bank Kherson Oblast and occupied Crimea,” the ISW wrote.

Ukrainian research group Center for Journalistic Investigations has reported that new post-storm satellite imagery showed that Russian forces on Dzharylhach Island had been isolated from the occupied Kherson region after a spit was washed away by the severe weather.