Russia’s forces will soon change their offensive strategy after decreasing attacks along parts of the frontline in recent weeks, Ukraine has said, as an Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map shows the latest state of play in the conflict.
Kharkiv oblast’s military administration head, Oleh Syniehubov, said Russian attacks towards Kupyansk in the Kharkiv oblast had dwindled over the past three weeks to between two and five attacks per day, although he expects renewed Russian assaults there when sub-zero temperatures freeze the ground.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian Ground Forces Command spokesman Volodymyr Fityo said on Wednesday that Moscow would shift the offensive from towards Kupyansk to the Lyman direction, further south.
It comes as Ukrainian officials are suggesting Russian forces will renew offensive actions towards both Kupyansk and Lyman in late January, or early February, which could be hampered due to a lack of reserves for large-scale operations.
Institute for the Study of War
The country’s Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) deputy chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi said on Wednesday the ground and airborne components of the Russian army “are unable to conduct strategic offensive operations.”
“It is impossible for them to conduct strategic offensive operations without powerful reserves,” he added, according to a translation, as per Suspilne, a Ukrainian media outlet.
Two days earlier, Skibitskyi said Moscow recruits about 30,000 personnel per month to replenish losses and form reserve regiments, but it would still need a larger draft akin to the partial mobilization Vladimir Putin announced in September 2022 to establish a “powerful strategic reserve.”
The ISW said that Skibitskyi’s comments indicate that even if Russia can generate enough manpower for routine operational-level rotations in Ukraine, it may struggle to quickly re-establish the operational reserves necessary for simultaneous offensive efforts in several directions. The Washington, D.C., think tank’s map shows Russian advances near Dibrova, south of Kupyansk, on January 15, although Moscow’s troops had retreated to the outskirts of the town of Spirne, further east.
Skibitskyi also warned on Thursday that Russia’s military had modernized its Kh-101 cruise missiles, which he described as “completely different from those used in 2022.”
He told the forum in Davos, Switzerland, that the missile with a range of over 3,000 miles “already has an electronic warfare system, protection, thermal traps, among other things.” Russia stepped up its missile and drone strikes on Ukraine over the New Year period, and many of them targeted civilian infrastructure.
However, Ukraine is believed to have carried out a number of strikes on Russian territory in recent weeks, for which it has not directly claimed responsibility.
The latest one was a drone attack that hit an oil depot near St Petersburg overnight Wednesday, which news outlet Ukrainska Pravda said was conducted by Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (GUR), citing an intelligence source.
The Russian ministry of defense said it had intercepted a drone over Leningrad Oblast, which surrounds St Petersburg.
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.