Ukraine War Map Shows Where Russia’s 2024 Offensive Is Already ‘Underway’

Russian forces have identified the goal of their grinding winter-spring offensive in eastern Ukraine, according to Kyiv’s spy chief, who predicted months of tough fighting and high casualties ahead.

Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov said in a Tuesday interview with the “My-Ukraine” channel that Moscow’s units will spend the coming months pushing to reach the Zherebets River that separates Luhansk and Kharkiv oblasts.

Such an advance would mean Russian control of all of Luhansk Oblast, which along with the neighboring Donetsk region has been at the heart of Kyiv’s battle with east Ukrainian separatists and their Russian patrons since 2014.

Fierce fighting continues in Donetsk, where Russian troops are seeking to eject Ukrainians defending the fortress settlement of Avdiivka. Its capture would bring Moscow’s forces a big step closer to full control of Donetsk Oblast.

Luhansk and Donetsk are the core of President Vladimir Putin’s effort to dismantle Ukraine. Days before the full-scale invasion, Putin officially recognized the puppet breakaway “people’s republics” in the two territories that were initially established in 2014, with the backing of Russian intelligence and military units.

Putin announced the annexation of Luhansk, Donetsk, and the partially occupied Ukrainian territories of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson in September 2022. Russian authorities have embarked on a broad “Russification” campaign in all occupied areas of Ukraine.

Budanov—who has become one of Ukraine’s most recognizable figures and reportedly a target of Russian assassination efforts—suggested on Tuesday that Russia’s offensives have already underwhelmed planners in Moscow.

“You can see the results yourself,” the spy chief said of the operations, which he said have already been underway for two and a half months. “Unfortunately, for us, they have some progress in the field, and what happened near Avdiivka. But this is not what they were counting on.”

Russian battlefield performance has been “nothing even close” to the planned advances, Budanov claimed. “Their offensive continues. Somewhere at the beginning of spring, it will be completely exhausted,” Budanov predicted.

Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry by email to request comment.

“Budanov’s statements are consistent with ISW’s observation that Russian forces have intensified offensive operations along this axis since the beginning of January 2024,” the Institute for the Study of War’s Tuesday update said of the fighting along the Luhansk-Kharkiv front.

“Russian forces have recently made tactical gains southeast of Kupiansk along the critical P07 Kupiansk-Svatove route near Krokhmalne and appear to be increasing assaults northwest and west of Krokhmalne towards the Oskil River,” the think tank added, referring to the fighting around the Kharkiv region city of Kupiansk which is a key strategic target in the area.

“Russian forces will likely be able to secure additional tactical-level gains in the Kupiansk area but are unlikely to be able to translate these tactical gains into wider mechanized maneuvers needed for operationally significant advances that could capture more territory in Kharkiv Oblast and push to the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast administrative borders,” ISW said.

Kusti Salm, the permanent secretary of the Estonian Defense Ministry, told Newsweek in December that 2024 will be a “grind” of continued costly Russian offensives.

“It’s going to be difficult for them to capture new land,” Salm said, noting that Russian forces will need to cross the fortifications and minefields they used to stop Ukraine’s summer operation. “But they definitely will keep on going. The attrition rate on the offensive will be very high for them, even if Ukraine is assuming the defensive.”