Russian forces continued their offensive this week targeting the eastern Ukrainian town of Avdiivka, just north of Donetsk. It remains surrounded on three sides, according to a graph produced by The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington D.C.-based think tank.
Moscow launched a surprise offensive against the town in October after a Ukrainian counterattack over the summer made only modest ground, failing to reach the Black Sea and cut Russia’s land bridge to Crimea. Both Russia and Ukraine have conducted assaults this week in a bid to break an increasingly deadlocked conflict.
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The latest ISW report, released on Friday, said that Moscow’s troops have been attacking in the direction of the Avdiivka Coke Plant north of the town itself, along with Sieverne and Tonenke to the west of the city.
The think tank mentioned a pro-Kremlin military blogger’s claim that the Russian are trying to “create a cauldron around Avdiivka,” making it difficult for Ukraine to maintain forces in rear areas and thus putting the city at risk of capture. However the ISW added there have been reports that the Ukrainian troops launched a localized counter-attack on November 10, regaining some of the ground they had lost around Avdiivka.
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi said that Russia has lost over 100 tanks and around 50 artillery systems in the battle for Avdiivka over the past month, along with suffering 10,000 casualties. Newsweek has not been able to independently verify these reports.
Institute for the Study of War
The ISW also said that Russian forces launched attacks to the north and south of Bakhmut, making “confirmed territorial gains,” including managing to “marginally advanced in the forested area north of Klishchiivka.”
On the southern front, Ukrainian troops continued their main counter-offensive in western Zaporizhia province, but without making any substantial gains, according to the ISW. The Russian Ministry of Defense said that 14 Ukrainian attacks in the direction of Verbove and Robotyne were repulsed over the past week, though this hasn’t been independently confirmed by Newsweek.
Arguably Kyiv’s biggest success in the past week came in Crimea, illegally annexed by Russia in 2014, where two Russian landing ships were struck and reportedly sunk by Ukrainian waterborne drones in Sevastopol.
On Friday, Ukrainian military intelligence released footage showing the drones approaching their targets, before at least two explosions. In an accompanying Telegram post, the intelligence officials wrote: “As a result of a night operation on the territory of temporarily occupied Crimea, [Ukrainian] soldiers struck small amphibious ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.”
In October, satellite images showed much of the Russian Black Sea fleet had left Sevastopol and relocated to other bases following a series of strikes by Ukrainian drones and missiles. These included a direct hit on its headquarters on September 22, which reportedly killed a number of senior officers.
The ISW update said that the number of Russian attacks on Ukraine using Iranian-made Shahed drones has dropped significantly over the past month. The think tank said it may be down to Moscow saving its drone stockpile for an offensive in the winter, likely including the targeting of Ukrainian energy supplies.
The think tank added: “Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat stated on November 10 that Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 500 Shahed-131/-136 drones in September 2023 and several hundred drones in October 2023 but are currently launching drone strikes with fewer Shaheds almost every night.
“Russian milbloggers noted on November 9 that Russian forces conducted large-scale Shahed strikes against Ukraine almost every night from the end of summer until mid-October 2023,” the ISW said. “The milbloggers claimed that Russia’s Shahed strikes have been notably smaller and less frequent in the past month due to Russian forces planning to synchronize a new wave of intense combined strikes with the beginning of future large-scale ground operations.”
Newsweek has reached out to the Russian and Ukrainian defense ministries for comment by email.
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.