If Donald Trump wins the next US presidential elections, Ukraine will not be a priority for him, increasing the risk Russia could win the war, famous British-American historian and economist Niall Ferguson said in an interview with NV on Nov. 14.
“If Joe Biden runs against Donald Trump, there is a 50% chance that Trump will win,” Ferguson said.
Read also: Feeding the crocodile: If we allow Russia any more territorial wins, it will soon go for more
“So I think Democrats should really consider how wise it is to choose Joe Biden as a candidate. He’s too old for this job, everyone knows that. (Vice President) Kamala Harris is not fit for this position, and that is also known.”
Ferguson also pointed out that if there is a recession in the United States before the elections, this likelihood will increase even more.
“That’s the reality: no president has been re-elected after a recession in a hundred years,” the historian added.
Read also: Trump discussed his quid pro quo Zelenskyy call with Australian billionaire
“And it may happen by November next year, as higher interest rates have a significant impact.”
He said that if Trump wins, “Ukraine will not be a top priority for him, his priorities will be domestic.” But, unlike the 2017, in the new Trump administration “there will be very few generals who will tell him not to change course.”
“Therefore, we, friends of Ukraine, must take into account that Trump may not only stop military and financial assistance, but also seek some diplomatic solution that is beneficial to Russia. There will be obstacles in the Congress, but we will have to reckon with the fact that he will try to do this,” Ferguson said.
That is why, he said, it is very important for Ukraine to “win within 12 months.”
“What does victory mean? Ideally, it could be defined as the return of all territories occupied by Russia, including those that were seized in 2014. But this is a rather old-fashioned definition of victory, and it may be unrealistic in the short term,” he said.
Read also: Western policy and Ukraine – interview with Timothy Snyder
At the same time, Ukraine has already won in other aspects: humiliated the Russian army, won the Battle of Kyiv, revealed the weakness of Russian forces and its economy. Ukraine has also gained the respect of the world that it did not have before.
“And (Ukraine has) also become a military power – one of the largest military forces in Europe, as Henry Kissinger said. These are the victories that Ukraine needs to consolidate,” the historian said.
“My main advice is that Ukraine should be ready to fight and talk at the same time. Keep fighting, but be prepared to negotiate. As soon as any negotiations begin with Russia, it will be harder for the Russians to escalate.”
For the full interview, see the latest issue of the NV magazine – No. 5, November 2023, now available for purchase on the NV.UA website.
We’re bringing the voice of Ukraine to the world. Support us with a one-time donation, or become a Patron!
Read the original article on The New Voice of Ukraine