Ukrainians Fear Renewed Threat From the North

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s military could be boosted by troops from Belarus, posing a further threat to Ukraine from the north, a Ukrainian news outlet has reported, citing an assessment by a commander for Kyiv’s forces.

Bohdan Krotevych, acting commander of the National Guard of Ukraine’s Azov Brigade, made the comments in an interview with Ukrainian journalist Dmitry Gordon over the weekend. Ukrainian news outlet Politika Strani said the commander’s view suggested closer cooperation between Putin and Alexander Lukashenko could be imminent.

As Putin’s closest ally, Lukashenko, the Belarusian leader, has allowed Russia to use his country as a springboard for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, while avoiding Minsk playing a direct role in the war.

The Russian army has used Belarusian training grounds and airfields. In January, Lukashenko announced that Russian nuclear weapons, which are controlled by Moscow, had arrived in Belarus.

“I see that the Russian Federation can repeat the offensive from the Chernihiv and Sumy regions, from the border of Belarus, and I see the possibility of Belarus entering the war,” Krotevych said.

“Krotevych has said that Belarus could enter the war on the side of the Russian Federation,” said Politika Strani in a Telegram post, which noted such a prospect “is much more dangerous for Ukraine than at the beginning of the invasion.”

The Russian army now has a numerical advantage at the front where it appears to be forcing Ukraine to throw more reserves into battle and Kyiv faces an increasing shortage of personnel, the channel said,

If Lukashenko and Putin agreed on Belarus entering the war, this could add a further 100,000 troops fighting for Russia, which will “be a serious problem for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, given the current balance of forces at the front,” the outlet said.

However, Putin’s invasion is deeply unpopular in Belarus where according to one poll, it is opposed by 97 percent of the population, and closer Belarusian involvement could pose a threat to Lukashenko’s regime.

Newsweek has contacted the Belarusian Defense Ministry for comment.

Hanna Liubakova, an independent Belarusian journalist and non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, told Newsweek there is “no evidence suggesting that Putin sought additional engagement in the invasion, specifically involving the dispatch of Belarusian troops.”

“For Putin, prioritizing Belarus as a potential training ground and a strategic base for potential future military operations may outweigh the risks associated with destabilization, especially considering the sentiments prevalent among the population.”

If the war against Ukraine were to escalate, and the Kremlin was concerned about a lack of resources leading to potential losses, Putin could declare a full mobilization, she said.

“Subsequently, it may seek support from its loyal ally,” Liubakova said. “In such a situation, the regime in Minsk might find itself in a precarious position, unable to decline assistance, given its dependence on Russia for survival.”

In a post on Substack on January 23, defense analyst Konrad Muzyka, from Rochan Consulting, said over the previous week, there had been “above average” activity from high and mid-ranking Belarusian military officials.

This included their taking part in at least two international meetings and one training gathering and they “conducted two readiness inspections of Belarusian military formations.”

The number of training events “remained significant” although most “pertained to formations and units subordinated to a single operational command,” Muzyka added.

Also, several dozen Belarusian service members had gone to Russia, “where they are undergoing a training course to prepare them for the military instructors’ role,” said the assessment.

While activities of Russian soldiers in Belarus “remained minimal,” personnel from the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC) “continued participating in training sessions” for Belarusian troops.