Valspar Championship 2024: Odds, prediction, value picks, more

A full field of 156 PGA Tour professionals will head to the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook for the Valspar Championship this week.

This tournament marks the fourth—and final—PGA Tour stop in Florida, with the “Snake Pit” taking center stage in the golf world.

The 16th, 17th, and 18th holes at the Copperhead Course comprise the “Snake Pit,” as they rank among the most challenging three-hole stretches on the PGA Tour.

Valspar Championship Odds

Here are the current odds for players to win, per DraftKings:

• Xander Schauffele +800
• Sam Burns +1200
• Justin Thomas +1400
• Jordan Spieth +1400
• Tony Finau +2200
• Cameron Young +2200
• Brian Harman +2200
• Sungjae Im +2500
• Nick Taylor +3500
• Min Woo Lee +3500
• Keegan Bradley +4000
• Eric Cole +4000
• Keith Mitchell +4000

Valspar Championship Predictions

Last year, American Taylor Moore birdied the difficult 16th hole to take a one-shot lead during Sunday’s final round. He then made par on 17 and 18, and claimed his first PGA Tour victory by one stroke over Adam Schenk.

Finishing two strokes behind were Tommy Fleetwood and Jordan Spieth.

This year, five of the top 20 players in the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) will tee it up at Innisbrook.

Xander Schauffele and Brian Harman, fresh off their runner-up finishes at The Players, will crisscross the state to the Tampa Bay area for the Valspar Championship.

Schauffele last played in this event in 2022, tying for 12th. Harman, meanwhile, has had more appearances at Innisbrook, but more on the former Georgia Bulldog follows below.

Keegan Bradley, Sam Burns, and Spieth are also in the field, as are Justin Thomas, Lucas Glover, and Min Woo Lee.

Photo by Mike Lawrie/Getty Images

Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth bounce back

Despite both players missing the cut last week at TPC Sawgrass, we believe that both Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth will bounce back at the Valspar Championship. These two major champions will arrive at Innisbrook refreshed thanks to their early exit in Ponta Vedra Beach.

Over his last three appearances at Innisbrook, Thomas has tied for 13th, third, and 10th. Shotmakers typically do well on this golf course, and Thomas has every shot required in his arsenal. We like him to finish in the top 5 at +330 this week.

As for Spieth, he also bodes a strong record on the Copperhead Course.

He won the Valspar Championship in 2015 in a playoff over Patrick Reed and Sean O’Hair, perhaps foreshadowing his major breakthrough at Augusta National a few weeks later.

Spieth most recently tied for third there a year ago, but it could have been a better result if not for two bogies on his final three holes. He hit it into the water on 16, which ultimately sealed his fate.

Nevertheless, we like Spieth to record his third top 10 finish of the season at a price of +175.

Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images

Brian Harman struggles

Coming off his best finish of the season at the Players Championship, Brian Harman is now headed to a course that has routinely stumped him during his career.

Of the nine times he has played in this event, Harman has missed the cut six times, including last season when he carded rounds of 70 and 75 on the par-71 layout. With that said, Harman did tie for fifth at Innisbrook in 2022, finishing three strokes out of a playoff won by Sam Burns.

But this week will mark a third straight event for Harman. Even though it looks as if he is rounding into form as the major season approaches, we believe that Harman should be avoided as a pick this week. This course just does not fit his eye.

Valspar Championship Longshot Pick

This could be the week for one of golf’s favorite players.

We like Joel Dahmen to parlay his success from The Players Championship into the Valspar Championship. He tied for 11th at TPC Sawgrass, shooting two 67s and a 4-under 68 over the final three rounds to tie for 11th.

Dahmen ranked 15th in strokes gained approaching the green last week, as TPC Sawgrass puts a premium on iron play. The Copperhead Course is similar, as strong iron play is required to win at Innisbrook.

Photo by Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images

Last year, when Dahmen tied for 61st at the Valspar, the former Washington Husky ranked 6th in strokes gained approaching the green. He could not putt to save his life, which explains why he finished 15 strokes behind Taylor Moore. He ranked 68th in strokes gained putting, losing almost five strokes on the greens.

But Dahmen has never missed the cut at this event, as his best finish came in 2019, when he tied for 30th.

Picking him to win at +10000 this week is a little ambitious, especially considering that this field features numerous high-caliber players. But we like Dahmen to finish in the top 10 at +850. Surely, golf fans everywhere will be rooting him on all weekend long.

Valspar Championship Pick

Outside of the recent Scottie Scheffler domination, the theme of this PGA Tour season has been first-time winners.

We believe that another first-time winner will emerge victorious this week at Innisbrook.

As such, we are going to with long shot Eric Cole to prevail at +4000.

Although he has missed two cuts within the last three weeks, Cole won the PGA Tour’s Rookie of the Year award last season. He seemingly plays every week, no matter where the tournament is.

Cole has played in every single event thus far this season, with his best finish being a tie for 10th at the Genesis Invitational. He also finished 21st or better four other times, most recently at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Plus, like Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas, Cole will arrive in the Tampa Bay area well-rested and ready to go. He is due for a win, and we believe he finally breaks through at the Valspar Championship.

For all other sports betting content, check out SB Nation’s DraftKings site.

Jack Milko is a golf staff writer for SB Nation’s Playing Through. Be sure to check out @_PlayingThrough for more golf coverage. You can follow him on Twitter @jack_milko as well.