Russian forces are edging forwards around the Ukrainian fortress city of Avdiivka in the war-torn east of the country, according to fresh reports from the Donetsk battlefield, despite mounting troop and equipment losses.
Russia’s nascent offensive around Avdiivka—a heavily defended town on the outskirts of the Russian-occupied city of Donetsk and a major strategic prize in that portion of the front—began with serious casualties, but the losses do not appear to have dissuaded the Russian command from the operation.
“Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Avdiivka on October 24 and made confirmed advances northeast of Avdiivka,” the Institute for the Study of War wrote in its Tuesday evening update.
Geolocated battlefield footage, it said, indicated a Russian advance to part of a waste heap northwest of Avdiivka that dominates the surrounding landscape, giving units there significant fields of fire over the area below. Videos shared on social media showed a Russian flag raised above the waste heap, which was later destroyed by a Ukrainian drone.
Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project
Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project
To the southwest, ISW cited Russian milbloggers who claimed Moscow’s forces had reached a key railway line west of Krasnohorivka, plus gained ground near Vodyane around 4 miles southwest of Avdiivka and Opytne, 2.5 miles south of Avdiivka.
Russian forces appear to be trying to encircle the settlement, advancing on its northern and southern flanks to cut off the Ukrainian forces defending there.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu have both played down the Avdiivka operation as an “active defense,” despite the significant resources committed to the effort.
ISW has previously described the attack as a “fixing” operation designed to draw Ukrainian attention, troops, and other resources from its own offensive effort in the southwestern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, where a decisive battlefield breakthrough is proving elusive.
The think tank has also suggested that Russia’s force around Avdiivka will not prove strong enough to encircle the town. Earlier this month, ISW wrote that “Russian operations including intensive artillery and airstrikes are likely intended to degrade Ukrainian forces around Avdiivka.”
“Russian forces are unlikely to make significant breakthroughs or cut off Ukrainian forces in the settlement in the near term, and potential advances at scale would likely require a significant and protracted commitment of personnel and materiel.”
Still, Russia keeps pushing. On Sunday, Ukrainian officials claimed Russia had lost 6,000 troops and more than 400 armored vehicles in a week of combat in the area. The British Defense Ministry said daily Russian casualties—as reported by Kyiv—had increased 90 percent due to the new offensive.
GENYA SAVILOV/AFP via Getty Images
Newsweek cannot independent verify these figures and has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry by email to request comment.
Heavy losses are nothing new for the Russian military. Moscow has proven willing to sustain high casualties in pursuit of a strategic goal, for example in its battles for now-destroyed cities like Mariupol and Bakhmut.
Oleksandr Merezhko, a member of the Ukrainian parliament and the chair of the body’s foreign affairs committee, told Newsweek that Moscow “might be trying to repeat the situation with Bakhmut, and it’s ready to sacrifice lots of its human lives.”
“It seems like Putin is getting ready for the presidential campaign in Russia,” Merezhko added, referring to the 2024 presidential election in which Putin is sure to secure another term in power. “As a dictator he desperately needs to show any ‘success’ on the front to the Russian population on the eve of the presidential elections.”
The arrival of American MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System—known as ATACMS—munitions on the battlefield may also be pushing the Kremlin into more aggressive action, Merezhko said. “I also believe that receiving ATACMS has proved to be a game changer, and we need more of this weaponry to continue our success,” he said.
“Russia is losing the war,” Merezhko added. “They realized that ATACMS will speed up the process of deoccupation. Maybe that’s the reason why Russians are desperately trying to show any semblance of ‘success.'”
“For us it’s important not only to advance and continue to liberate our territories but also to save lives of our soldiers,” Merezhko added.
Uncommon Knowledge
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.