What We Now Know About Ukrainian POW Disaster

Mystery surrounds the crash of a Russian military plane, which Moscow said had been transporting Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs), as demands by Kyiv grow for Russia to provide proof for the claims.

Russian and Ukrainian authorities have opened criminal investigations into Wednesday’s crash of the Ilyushin Il-76 transport aircraft in Russia’s Belgorod region.

Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) launched a probe on Thursday and Russia’s Investigative Committee said it had opened a “terrorism” case, following Moscow’s claims that a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile downed the plane. Newsweek contacted the Ukraine’s SBU and Russia’s Investigative Committee for comment on Saturday.

Kyiv has not confirmed or denied involvement in the crash that Moscow said killed 65 POWs, six Russian crew members and three Russian soldiers. Ukrainian officials continue to question whether any prisoners were really on board.

Russia’s preliminary investigation said that a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile launched from Liptsy, Kharkiv oblast, downed the aircraft, and Russian media reported that investigators are decrypting its black boxes.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday it was obvious that Ukraine had shot down the plane, whether on purpose or by accident.

Andrey Kartapolov, who chairs Russia’s parliamentary defense committee, said that Moscow had given Kyiv a 15-minute warning before the aircraft entered the area where it came down. Ukrainian officials deny they had received any Russian request to secure the air space in question. Ukraine’s military intelligence agency spokesperson Andriy Yusov said that a prisoner swap was planned for that day but did not happen.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War said on Friday that Moscow was to return 65 people to Ukraine. However, it did not confirm if they were included in a list published by Kremlin propagandist and RT editor-in-chief Margarita Simonyan.

Ukrainian military officials met with relatives of those named on the list, although videos published by Russian propaganda outlets did not provide the families of the alleged victims any proof that they were on board, The Kyiv Independent reported.

Adding to the uncertainty was Ukraine’s Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets who said Russia’s list included POWs who had been swapped before. He added that Moscow wants to use the crash to destabilize Ukraine domestically and reduce Western support for Ukraine.

However, Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR) chief Kyrylo Budanov said there was no proof so many people could have been on board and that Russia’s claim “still raises many questions,” according to a Facebook statement by the coordination headquarters.

The SBU’s first deputy chairman, Sergiy Andrushchenko, accused Russia of trying to hide the real cause of the crash. He said how Moscow had refused international experts to investigate the circumstances.

Ukraine will “use all the tools to find out the true causes of what happened, as well as who or what was actually transported in that plane,” Andrushchenko said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine will demand an international investigation into the crash, which was reportedly the subject of a UN Security Council (UNSC) emergency meeting on Thursday.

Amid claim and counterclaim from both sides, Ukrainian journalist Ilia Ponomarenko wrote on X, formerly Twitter, that, if there were a prisoner swap, it was doubtful that Ukraine’s air defenses did not know it was taking place.

Ponomarenko also dismissed the chances of a miscommunication between Ukraine’s military intelligence and its air force because a similar swap took place on January 3 as planned.

“If dozens of Ukrainian POWs were being transported on a military aircraft… was this information properly brought to Ukraine’s notice as necessary? If the answer is no, and if Ukrainian POWs were indeed on board—this constitutes a severe war crime,” Ponomarenko added.