Republican presidential candidates are only two weeks away from the Iowa caucuses, when they will face voters for the first time in their 2024 presidential campaigns.
Iowa Republicans will cast the first votes of the GOP primary on January 15, 2023, potentially determining the fate of former President Donald Trump, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former United Nations ambassador and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. Iowa plays a crucial role in presidential nominating contests, as a strong performance in the midwestern state can help candidates build momentum ahead of other early-voting states, such as New Hampshire and South Carolina.
Candidates are expected to travel to Iowa over the next two weeks to make their final cases as to why they are the strongest Republican to lead the party’s presidential ticket in November as the party hopes to use President Joe Biden’s unpopularity to flip control of the White House.
Iowa Republicans use the caucus system of voting, rather than the primary ballots used in most other states. Rather than filling out ballots, voters will attend precinct meetings and physically divide themselves into different groups backing different candidates—while they also seek to win over undecided voters.
KAMIL KRZACZYNSKI/AFP via Getty Images; Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
Trump remains popular among GOP voters, though some have expressed concerns about the possibility of his legal troubles becoming a distraction during election season. His Republican critics point to polls showing a guilty verdict would put him at a disadvantage in the general election, suggesting other conservatives would make a stronger candidate against the eventual Democratic nominee.
But polls show Trump continuing to hold substantial leads against his top Republican rivals in Iowa and other early-voting states, despite concerns about his electability.
The most recent poll out of Iowa shows Trump with a 32-point lead over his closest competitors.
The Insider Advantage poll conducted among 850 likely voters from December 18 to 19, 2023, found that 49 percent of Iowa Republicans plan to support Trump in the caucuses. Meanwhile, DeSantis and Haley each received support from 17 percent of voters.
Other candidates polled in the single digits. Five percent of respondents said they planned to back entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, 4 percent said they support former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and 1 percent said they would back former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson.
The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.36 percentage points.
Newsweek reached out to the Trump and Haley campaigns via email and DeSantis campaign via his contact form for comment.
A Fox Business survey, conducted by pollster Beacon Research/Shaw Company Research, similarly found Trump leading his opponents. Trump won support from 52 percent of respondents, DeSantis earned the backing of 18 percent, and 16 percent said they would vote for Haley. No other candidates received double-digit support.
That poll was conducted among 804 likely caucus-goers from December 14 to 18 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Meanwhile, polling analysis site 538 has published an aggregate of recent polls in Iowa, revealing that Trump is averaging support from 50 percent of Iowa Republicans as of January 1, 2024.
DeSantis is averaging support from roughly 18 percent of voters, Haley is averaging about 16 percent and Ramaswamy is averaging about 6 percent, according to 538. Less than 4 percent of voters plan to back Christie, and less than 1 percent said they will vote for Hutchinson.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.