A new pattern emerged along the nation’s southern border last month: Migrant arrests plummeted at the Texas border in January compared to the same month a year ago. At the same time, similar arrests soared year-over-year at entry points in California and Arizona.
Experts say a combination of factors is likely causing the shift, which has led to several thousand migrants entering California each week while they await court dates for immigration proceedings.
Stepped-up enforcement efforts by the governments of Mexico, Panama and Colombia, and heightened violence by cartels on the Mexican side of the Texas border have likely slowed expected migration into that state.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s restrictive new immigration policies, including installing razor wire along some parts of the border and a new state law that could take effect next month, could also be playing a role.
“For something to change that much that quickly, it’s either word of mouth among migrants or some change among smuggling patterns, or both,” said Adam Isacson, director for defense oversight at the Washington Office on Latin America, a research and advocacy organization.
He said some migrants and smugglers may already be changing their routes in anticipation of the Texas law, which would authorize local police to charge migrants with illegal entry and reentry, punishable by six months in jail or up to 20 years in prison, respectively. The American Civil Liberties Union and other advocacy groups have issued warnings for immigrants to avoid travel in Texas.
“How does that [information] filter out?” Isacson said. “Everyone has phones now and can alter where they’re going very quickly.”
California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office blamed Republicans for sabotaging attempts at progress on border security.
“In the absence of any political courage from the Republican Party, California has once again stepped up — making historic investments and serving as a model of partnership for a safe and humane border,” spokeswoman Erin Mellon wrote in a statement.
Texas’ anti-immigration policies have pitted it against the Biden administration.
Last month, Texas lost a fight against the administration over its use of barbed wire along the border. By a 5-4 vote, the Supreme Court said Border Patrol officers may remove barbed wire installed by Texas authorities that prevented the federal agents from monitoring areas along the Rio Grande.
A federal judge in Austin will decide whether the new Texas law making illegal border crossings a state crime can go into effect March 5.
Migration patterns along the border vary month to month due to seasonal changes, including weather. But even after accounting for those normal fluctuations, last month’s arrest figures stood out.
According to the latest Border Patrol figures, the regions of El Paso and Del Rio, Texas, each had fewer than 18,000 arrests in January. That’s nearly half the number from the same month a year earlier.
Meanwhile, migrants attempting to enter the country illegally in the San Diego region were arrested nearly 25,000 times in January, a 60% increase over the same month last year, Border Patrol figures show.
Arizona witnessed an even larger increase. Tuscon had more than 50,000 arrests, up from 20,000 last year, according to the Border Patrol.
The Mexican government’s stepped-up enforcement is a factor in the drop along the Texas border, said Ariel Ruiz Soto, a policy analyst at the nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute. Enforcement within Mexico as far south as the city of Tapachula, which borders Guatemala, has disrupted migration routes along the path toward Texas, while having less effect on those bound for Arizona and California.
Migrants of similar nationalities tend to head toward particular regions of the border. A senior official with U.S. Customs and Border Protection said arrests of migrant families from Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador — who tend to show up at the border with Texas — typically decrease in the first few months of the year.
Arrests in Arizona and California steadily increased since last summer, the official said. San Diego sees a more diverse population of arriving migrants, including those from as far as China, Turkey and Guinea, and is less affected by seasonality as people from certain countries can buy plane tickets straight to Tijuana, one of the largest cities along the Mexican border.
After increasing through January, weekly Border Patrol numbers showed 8,659 arrests near San Diego for the week ending Feb. 6 and a decrease to 7,531 by Feb. 20.
Customs and Border Protection data show a 75% drop in arrests of Venezuelans from December to January. Ruiz Soto said that’s because the governments of Panama and Colombia stepped up their enforcement of the Darien Gap, the dangerous jungle route between those two countries where many migrants pass through on their way to the U.S.
Smuggling patterns, which were somewhat consistent for many years, have shifted every few months since 2021, Isacson said. He pointed to cartel infighting in the Mexican state of Tamaulipas, which borders the Rio Grande Valley of Texas, and the increase in migrant kidnappings.
San Diego hasn’t been one of the top regions for migrant arrests for decades, Isacson said.
Citing increased migrant arrivals, CBP officials temporarily shut down the San Ysidro Pedestrian West crossing in December and redirected agents to assist Border Patrol officers taking migrants into custody.
The border protection agency official said they screen nearly 1,000 people daily through a fast-tracked removal process. But the agency lacks enough asylum officers to scale up those screenings, so many more migrants are placed into traditional deportation proceedings and released pending a final order from a judge, which could be years away because of the backlog of millions of cases.
One outcome of the heightened arrivals to California was the early closure Thursday of the San Diego Migrant Welcome Center, operated by the nonprofit SBCS, formerly South Bay Community Services.
The Customs and Border Protection official said that highlights the need for more funding. Organizations in the area, including Catholic Charities and Jewish Family Services, haven’t received additional federal money this fiscal year through FEMA’s shelter and services program.
A bipartisan bill blocked by Senate Republicans earlier this month would have funded sweeping immigration reforms aimed at addressing the unprecedented arrivals at the southern border. In the wake of the bill’s failure, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement has warned it could resort to releasing thousands of detained immigrants as it seeks to address a $700-million budget shortfall.
Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) filed an amendment to the failed national security bill to include $5 billion in FEMA funding for migrant shelter and services. He told The Times he will continue working to increase such funds.
“The federal government must increase its support for the community-based organizations who are providing important humanitarian assistance to migrants in California and across our southwestern border,” he said in statement.
Asked about the migration shift, Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Bonsall) blamed the Biden administration. His district includes Jacumba Hot Springs, where hundreds of migrants have been held in open-air camps.
“Biden has surrendered our sovereignty and is letting foreign governments — many that are hostile to our national interest — decide who gets to cross our borders, break our laws, and remain in our country,” he said in a statement.
The San Diego welcome center, which opened in October, offered migrants Wi-Fi, food and help coordinating transportation and shelter. It served about 81,000 migrants.
The center operated with $6 million in federal COVID-19-era American Rescue Plan funds allocated through San Diego County. The money was projected to last through March. The county Board of Supervisors is working to develop a long-term plan for migrant transfer sites and respite shelters.
“As the number of migrants arriving at the center has increased significantly over the last few weeks, our finite resources have been stretched to the limit,” SBCS President and Chief Executive Kathie Lembo said in a statement.
The Customs and Border Protection official said the agency has shifted some personnel to California since last year, though not in recent weeks. The agency is concerned about the decrease in humanitarian support with the welcome center’s closure and the impact that could have on border communities in California, the official said.
Nonprofits that offered services to migrants at the center, including the legal services provider Al Otro Lado, were left scrambling to fill the gap as arrivals of migrants continued. Border Patrol buses dropped around 350 migrants off at a transit station Friday, the organization said.