Russell Wilson is about to do something he’s never experienced: Hit free agency. This week the Denver Broncos announced they were cutting Wilson after March 13, spreading his cap hit over two seasons and allowing him to sign anywhere in the league.
Wilson is unique when it comes to the free agent class because of how much money he has left on his deal. The contract was one of the worst in NFL history, as the Broncos signed the quarterback to a massive extension before he ever took a snap. In their mind locking up Wilson was the play, but it banked entirely on him actually being elite, which never happened.
As it stands the Broncos owe Wilson $39M this season alone, with more cap space being eaten up in dead money down the line. Now, here’s where this gets interesting. Since Wilson is being cut there is offset language in his contract which effectively means he can’t make any less than that $39M he was owed by the Broncos. If a team signs Wilson they pay him a salary, and anything lower than $39M is made up for by Denver.
If this were a normal process a team would pay Wilson somewhere in the $15-20M range per year or more, with the Broncos making up difference to hit the $39M. However, this operates under the assumption that things ended on good terms — which they didn’t.
So here’s what Russ can (and will) do
Wilson has his money set, so the motivating factor is to help his new team. The best way to do this is to sign for the veteran minimum, giving the organization maximum cap space to restructure contracts, sign other free agents, and conduct business.
This means that the cost to a team signing Russell Wilson will be $915,000 this season. The Broncos will then be on the hook for $38.085M. It doesn’t hurt Wilson financially either way, because no team would entertain signing him for more than the Broncos owe him.
Here’s where Russ can go maximum petty
If you’ve followed this process it’s clear that Wilson has grown to hate Sean Payton. He’s felt disrespected by the Broncos during rumors of his impending release, and Payton is at the center of all that.
The best, most damaging way to stick it to his former team would be to sign with the Las Vegas Raiders on the minimum. The Raiders need a quarterback upgrade, and essentially this would be a double-whammy of an eff you to Denver. It would give the Raiders cap flexibility, while also ensuring their division rival is hurt the most by the remaining money they owe Wilson.
If you’re wondering why there are so many “Russ to Vegas” rumors flying around, that’s why. It’s a good fit move, and it allows him to hate on his former team.
Why doesn’t this happen more often?
Simply put: Nobody is as dumb as the Broncos were with this Russell Wilson deal.
The entire offset scenario happens a lot in the league, but never to this degree. Typically you’ll see players sign for at, or close to their market value, then the offset will cause the cutting team to make up a small difference.
We’ve never seen such a disparity between market value and an existing contract. Also typically breakups like this don’t have as many bad feelings associated with them. Essentially Denver created a perfect storm where Wilson wants to damage his former team, and the market condition are perfect to do just that.
It hurts if you’re a Broncos fan, but this organization only has themselves to blame.