Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would lose to the commander-in-chief he fired if an election were to be held now, according to a poll.
Zelensky removed Valerii Zaluzhny from his post in February following months of speculation about a rift between the pair, likely exacerbated by the general’s assessment to The Economist that the war in Ukraine had reached a stalemate.
Zaluzhny was replaced by the commander of Ukrainian Land Forces Oleksandr Syrsky but has continued to enjoy great popularity among the Ukrainian public.
Ukraine’s constitution mandates presidential elections to take place on the last Sunday of March in the fifth year of the incumbent’s term, which would have been March 31. However, following Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion, Kyiv has declared martial law which prohibits elections being held.
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But a survey by the Kyiv-based firm SOCIS conducted between February 22 and March 1 asked 3,000 Ukrainians adults how they would vote in a hypothetical ballot.
The poll with a margin of error of 2.1 percent found that if an election were held, 41 percent of respondents would have backed Zaluzhny in the first round, compared with 23.7 percent for Zelensky.
In Ukraine’s election, if there is no candidate with a majority, a second round would be held and this scenario would see Zaluzhny get over two-thirds (67.5 percent) of the vote, compared with roughly a third (32.5 percent) who would back the incumbent.
The next most popular figure was Petro Poroshenko, whom Zelensky defeated in 2019, getting the backing of 6.4 percent of the survey’s respondents.
A hypothetical parliamentary election would see a conditional “Zaluzhny bloc” get 46.4 percent of the vote—well clear of a so-called “Zelensky bloc” which would get just over a fifth (21.1 percent) while a “Poroshenko Bloc” would get 7.5 percent.
There have been calls among some U.S. lawmakers for a wartime election to be held in Ukraine. However, the majority of respondents (59.7 percent) rejected this idea, compared with a quarter (24.2 percent) who said a ballot should be held. Newsweek has contacted the Ukrainian president’s office for comment.
The findings by SOCIS highlighting Zaluzhny’s popularity echo a poll in December by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) that found that Ukrainians’ trust in Zelensky had declined from 84 percent at the end of 2022 to 62 percent a year later, while 88 percent said they trusted Zaluzhny.
George Beebe, a former director of Russia analysis at the CIA, told Newsweek in February that Zaluzhny’s popularity meant that Zelensky had taken a risk by firing him.
“He is well-liked within Ukraine’s military, and polls indicate he is the most popular figure in the country, surpassing Zelensky’s own diminishing ratings,” said Beebe, director of grand strategy at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
“The chances that Zaluzhny’s firing could erupt into a broader Ukrainian political crisis are significant,” he added.
Uncommon Knowledge
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.