Republican U.S. Senate candidate David McCormick is all but guaranteed to be the GOP challenger taking on incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey in Pennsylvania in November, after a Friday court decision ensured they will be the only options for voters on April primary ballots in the state.
Pennsylvania’s State Supreme Court on Friday rejected an appeal from a lesser known Republican hopeful, Joe Vodvarka, the Associated Press reported. The GOP candidate had previously been ordered off the ballot by a lower court after failing to secure enough signatures. Brandi Tomasetti, a Republican, and William Parker, a Democrat, were previously ordered off ballots by court decisions.
Polling currently suggests that Casey is ahead of McCormick, but some surveys show a close race. Pennsylvania has been a swing state in recent elections, going for former President Donald Trump in 2016 and then for President Joe Biden in 2020. Recent polls in the Keystone State have shown Trump leading Biden, who remains unpopular nationwide.
Newsweek reached out to the McCormick and Casey campaigns via email for comment.
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What the Polls Show
The current polling average by Real Clear Polling, which includes surveys from January 4 through March 13, shows the incumbent Democrat with a 7.5 point lead over the GOP challenger. Casey has the support of an average of 49.5 percent in Pennsylvania, while McCormick is backed by an average of 42 percent.
A March 10 to 13 poll by Emerson College showed Casey up by 4 points. The Democrat had the backing of 52 percent of registered voters compared to 48 percent for McCormick. The survey included 1,000 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points.
Polling by Chism Strategies in February showed a tight race between Casey and McCormick. The survey of 500 registered voters had Casey at 38 percent and McCormick at 37 percent, suggesting a large segment of voters remained undecided. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.22 points.
In late January, Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research released polling that showed Casey ahead by a wide margin. The Democrat led his Republican opponent by 12 points, or 47 to 35 percent. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.6 percent.
Other Data Points
Although Casey looks to be leading his GOP rival, Biden is currently behind Trump in Pennsylvania. CNN polling from March 13 to 18 showed Biden down by 2 points, or 38 percent to 40 percent, when including independent contenders Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Dr. Cornel West in the mix. Emerson College’s March poll in the state had Trump up 4 points.
In 2020, Biden narrowly beat Trump in Pennsylvania by approximately 80,000 votes, a margin of 1.2 percent—50 percent to 48 percent. Previously in 2016, Trump defeated Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton in the state by just over 44,000 votes. Clinton had the backing of 47.5 percent of Pennsylvania voters compared to Trump’s 48.2 percent.
However, Pennsylvania voters’ preferences for president may differ substantially from their Senate preferences. Casey easily won reelection in 2018, defeating his GOP rival by a margin of 15 points. It’s unclear how the presidential contest could impact the Senate race in Pennsylvania, especially when independent voters will likely be pivotal to securing a win for either candidate.
With a Senate election map that appears to favor Republicans this cycle, Democrats are expected to pour millions of dollars into holding Casey’s seat. The GOP, viewing Pennsylvania as a potential pickup opportunity, will also fight hard to unseat the Democratic incumbent.
Uncommon Knowledge
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.