An increase in attacks on Russian military enlistment offices likely suggests a lack of confidence in dictator Vladimir Putin’s promise not to announce second wave of mobilization, UK Defense Ministry’s intelligence update of Jan. 28 suggests.
On Jan. 22, Russian authorities reported there had been 220 attacks on military enlistment offices since the war began in February 2022. Other statistics from media outlet Mediazona reported 113 attacks on enlistment offices recorded since Jul. 26, 2023. Taken together, these statistics indicate a doubling of arson attacks on enlistment offices over the last six months.
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Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Director Sergey Naryshkin accuses those responsible for the arson attacks of acting at the behest of Western officials. However the increase in attacks is more likely due to a growing sense of disaffection with the war within the Russian population, especially among those who would be targeted by a second wave of mobilization. Some of those accused of perpetrating such attacks have been charged with terrorism and treason.
Further mobilization would contradict Putin’s promise at his Dec. 14, 2023 annual news conference that there would be no further mobilization.
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Russia conscripts about 1,000-1,100 people per day, or about 30,000 a month, Deputy Head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Vadym Skibitskyi said on Jan. 15.
Earlier, National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov said that the Kremlin could launch a total mobilization after the presidential election in March 2024.
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin signed a decree on Sept. 29, 2023, to draft another 130,000 Russian citizens for military service.
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announced on Sept. 11 that a massive forced mobilization of the population would begin in Russia and the temporarily occupied territories due to Russia’s heavy losses at the front. The number of people to be conscripted could range from 400,000 to 700,000.
The number of Russian military personnel seeking help to desert from their units has nearly doubled since the summer, The Moscow Times reported on Dec. 4, citing data from “Idite Lesom” (Get to Forest), an organization that helps Russians avoid participating in the war against Ukraine.
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