Joe Biden Gains Ground on Donald Trump in Critical Swing States

President Joe Biden is making gains on Donald Trump in a number of key swing states, according to recent polling.

New polling conducted by Greenberg Research for Democracy Corps surveyed 2,500 registered voters in the U.S. between March 28 and April 2, 2024, assessing voting intention across a number of states. The polling measured what it has identified as the “key battleground” states of Arizona, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Battleground states, also referred to as swing states, are where the vote is narrowest, usually within a point difference between the winner and loser. Some states across the U.S. often have a a close vote, or may swing between parties during elections.

The survey found that in these nine states, Biden has moved to within three points of Trump to 40-43, narrowing the gap from its last poll in November 2023 when Trump was on 43 and Biden on 37. When measuring likely voters, the three-point gap between the candidates remained, but with 41 percent backing Biden and 44 percent backing Trump.

Democracy Corps is an independent, non-profit organization producing free public opinion research. It was co-founded by Stan Greenberg, who served as a polling adviser to President Bill Clinton and Vice President Al Gore.

The poll also found that Biden is making gains with swing voters, which it defines as “independents, double haters and moderates.” Double haters are those who dislike both political candidates or parties.

Compared to its November 2023 poll, Biden has increased his vote share among these swing voters from 37 percent to 40 percent, with Trump also increasing by 1 percent from 43 to 44 percent, meaning there is now a four point gap between them instead of a six point gap.

Among Black, Hispanic, and Asian voters, Biden has made modest gains with all but the latter in the battleground states. The poll found in November 2023 that 60 percent of Black voters indicated they would vote for Biden, which has grown by eight points to 68 percent. Trump trails far behind, with only 16 percent of Black voters surveyed saying they would vote for him as of April 2024—a decrease of 4 four points from November.

A similar eight-point increase for Biden was recorded among Hispanic voters, with support growing from 37 to 45 between November and April. Last year the candidates were neck-and-neck, with Trump on 36 percent.

However, Biden’s popularity among Asian voters has shrunk, the poll indicates. A drop of four points was recorded between the current and previous poll, with Biden now commanding the support of 47 percent of Asian voters surveyed in comparison to an earlier 51 percent. Trump has made gains in this demographic, jumping from 24 to 34 percent—a 10-point increase since November.

Newsweek has contacted the campaign teams for Trump and Biden via email for comment outside of normal working hours.

Battleground states refer to states that tend to politically realign with each general election. In 2020, five states switched from one party to another—Biden edged out President Trump thanks to narrow victories in key swing states Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—all states Trump carried in 2016.

Often, battleground states are only won by narrow margins. For example, in 2020 Biden beat Trump in Arizona by just 0.4 percent of the vote. In Georgia, the margin was just 0.3 percent, and in Pennsylvania 1.2 percent.

To compare, in comfortably blue California, Biden wiped his opponent with 63.5 percent of the vote to 34.3 percent. In the traditionally red state of Tennessee, Trump took 60.7 percent of the vote in comparison to Biden’s 37.4 percent.