Following a chaotic week on Capitol Hill in which Speaker Kevin McCarthy failed twice to unify Republicans behind a defense spending bill, the House appears on pace to push America into a federal government shutdown on October 1.
Both Senate Democrats and Republicans as well as House Democrats largely support passing a “continued resolution” (CR) which would keep federal spending at its current levels as Congress negotiates spending levels for fiscal year 2024.
However, some hardline conservatives oppose passing a CR and want deeper cuts to government agencies than what most House Republicans support, as evidenced by the defeat of the defense bill in the House last week.
In order to become Speaker of the House, McCarthy made a variety of concessions to his party’s hard-right flank, including bringing back a procedural rule known as a “motion to vacate” that allows members to call a vote to oust the speaker. Conservative Republican Congressman Matt Gates has indicated he’d call such a motion if McCarthy joins with Democrats to pass a CR.
Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts called the shutdown a “cynical ploy.”
“This shutdown that the Republican extremists are threatening, it’s just another way to bring pain to the American people for a purpose,” Warren told Newsweek. “They believe that if they can impose more pain on the American people somehow that will improve Donald Trump’s chances of getting elected. This is nothing but a cynical political ploy.”
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Warren warned that millions of Americans will be hurt if the government shuts down. She noted that if it occurs, there will be fewer food inspectors to ensure safety, security workers and air traffic controllers will be required to work without pay, and there will be military personnel with mortgages who won’t receive checks.
In addition to these considerations detailed by Warren, the nonpartisan Brookings Institution writes that the furloughing of government workers amid a federal shutdown can create processing disruptions that may affect small business loans, federal benefits, passport applications, and other services.
For these reasons, most members of the Senate Republican Conference have been vocal in their opposition. During his Tuesday press conference, Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell said he’s “not a fan of government shutdowns” because they’ve never produced substantive policy change and have reflected poorly upon his party.
It’s not just the Senate leadership class that opposes shutdowns. Senator Ron Johnson, a Wisconsin Republican, derailed the Senate’s effort to pass four of its 12 spending bills and said he’d provide his consent to move forward on voting for the measures if Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer brought forth a bipartisan bill that would permanently end federal shutdowns.
Missouri Senator Josh Hawley, also a staunch conservative, expressed his displeasure for government shutdowns and support for the bipartisan bill, warning that everyone who relies on government agencies and payments will suffer Congress can’t come together.
“This shutdown stuff is stupid,” Hawley told Newsweek. “We don’t do this in Missouri. You have to get the budget done under our state constitution, you have to. And that’s what the ‘no government shutdowns bill’ would do, it’d just automatically roll it into a CR.”
Whether this bill will be taken up in the Senate remains to be seen as the upper chamber waits on the House Republicans to reach consensus on whether they plan to unify behind a CR or will attempt to pass party-line spending bills with virtually no shot of passing the Senate.
If McCarthy cannot galvanize his conference behind a course of action, moderate Republicans have indicated that they would be willing to side with Democrats and bring forth a “discharge petition” that, with enough signatures, would force McCarthy to bring a bipartisan CR to the floor which Democrats would then support.
McCarthy’s actions this week will be telling about the state of his conference and whether America will be able to divert a potential shutdown. If it cannot, and such a shutdown lasts over a prolonged period, the U.S. could see its economy start to bleed.
The five-week partial shutdowns, where some agencies were funded but not all, under former President Donald Trump that lasted from the end of December 2018 into the end of January 2019 lowered GDP growth by 0.1 percent for the fourth quarter of 2018 and by 0.2 percent for the first quarter of 2019. Partisan conflict this past spring over paying the nation’s debt saw America’s credit rating lowered by Fitch Ratings, which provides credit ratings for global capital markets.
“It’s terrible,” Democratic Senator John Fetterman of Pennsylvania told Newsweek. “[House Republicans] already damaged our nation’s credit rating. Why would they want to do this?” he asked rhetorically. “It doesn’t make any sense.”