The Palestinian militant attack on Israel on Saturday — possibly the deadliest and largest ever — will dramatically alter diplomatic and political calculations in the Middle East and deprive Washington of any leverage it has in influencing Israel, diplomats and analysts say.
It is all but certain that Israel will respond with a full frontal assault on the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip and possibly parts of the West Bank, in what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already called an all-out war. A ground incursion, 18 years after Israel withdrew from Gaza, is not out of the question, experts say.
The looming and urgent question then will be whether fighting extends farther into the region, involving Lebanon or other areas where anti-Israel militants including Hezbollah are based.
As the death toll of Israelis and Palestinians rose steadily Saturday, the capture of numerous Israeli hostages by Palestinian Hamas militants who infiltrated southern Israel constitutes a new element with unpredictable consequences.
Another immediate casualty of the unprecedented violence will be U.S.-backed efforts to open relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, a highly prized, historic move that was gaining momentum in recent weeks.
To seal the deal, Saudi Arabia has been demanding a number of concessions from the U.S. and from Israel, including steps that would move the Palestinians closer to establishing an independent state. That concession has been steadfastly resisted by Netanyahu and his ultra-conservative government, even though the Biden administration has insisted on the “two-state solution,” as it is known.
“Any leverage the Biden administration had” to exact concessions from Netanyahu for improving conditions for the Palestinians “has completely disappeared,” said Aaron David Miller, a veteran former Middle East envoy now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Though perhaps not dead yet, Miller said in an interview, “normalization has suffered a significant blow.
“We don’t know where all of this is going, but bloodiness will be going up on all sides.”
Shocked by the level of carnage, it would be impossible at this point for any Israeli prime minister to make concessions to the Palestinians, several analysts said. Similarly, the high death toll among Palestinian civilians would complicate any overtures the Saudis might have been willing to make toward Israel.
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken was scheduled to travel to Israel, the Palestinian city of Ramallah and Saudi Arabia next week, but that trip may now be canceled. At a minimum, it will become a mission of crisis diplomacy instead of efforts to make progress on opening Israel-Saudi ties.
In Washington, meanwhile, the White House leaped into crisis mode. Blinken joined President Biden and other senior national security officials for emergency meetings. Blinken was telephoning world leaders in an effort to decide on a course of action, a State Department spokesman said.
U.S. condemnation of the massive surprise attack was uniform and universal. European governments, too, which are usually more sympathetic to Palestinians than U.S. administrations, were highly critical of the attack.
Biden said he telephoned Netanyahu to “unequivocally condemn” the “appalling … horrific and ongoing attacks in Israel.”
“I made clear to Prime Minister Netanyahu that we stand ready to offer all appropriate means of support to the government and people of Israel,” Biden said in a statement. “Terrorism is never justified. Israel has a right to defend itself and its people. The United States warns against any other party hostile to Israel seeking advantage in this situation. My administration’s support for Israel’s security is rock solid and unwavering.”
“We stand in solidarity with the government and people of Israel,” Blinken said in a statement, “and extend our condolences for the Israeli lives lost in these attacks.
“We will remain in close contact with our Israeli partners. The United States supports Israel’s right to defend itself.”
Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III said the Pentagon would “work to ensure that Israel has what it needs to defend itself and protect civilians from indiscriminate violence and terrorism.” He did not elaborate.