Following the fall of the embattled fortress town of Avdiivka, Russian forces may target Pokrovsk, a major logistical hub for Ukraine’s army in the eastern Donetsk region, an expert has told Newsweek.
Observers of the war in Ukraine have weighed in on where Moscow may set its sights next after Kyiv said its forces had withdrawn from the key frontline town of Avdiivka after months of fighting.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the decision was made to save the lives of his soldiers, and Russia has since said it has taken full control of the area, marking Moscow’s biggest victory for months.
A potential future Russian target could be Pokrovsk, which is located about 70 km (43 miles) northwest of the Russian-occupied city of Donetsk, Elina Beketova, of the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington, D.C., told Newsweek.
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Pokrovsk, which had a pre-war population of around 60,000 people, is at the intersection of several railways and roads, making it a major player in Ukrainian logistics.
Independent Russian publication Novaya Gazeta reports that Pokrovsk has become an evacuation transport hub, while British newspaper the Guardian notes that numerous media organizations have used it as a base to cover developments on the nearby front lines.
While it is “still difficult” to predict what the Russians will choose as their next target after Avdiivka or where they will regroup, other targets for Moscow’s forces may include the cities of Selidove or Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region, said Beketova.
“It’s likely that Russian soldiers will target settlements adjacent to the occupied city to test the capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and further advance in the Donetsk region,” she said. “Potential targets could include Pokrovsk, Selidove, or Chasiv Yar. There may be a significant battle in Chasiv Yar, a settlement not far from Bakhmut and built up on high ground.”
Retired U.S. Marine Corps Colonel Mark Cancian told Newsweek that while Pokrovsk is indeed a major logistics hub, it’s a long way from Avdiivka.
“Ukraine lost about 10km of territory when it retreated from Avdiivka, a city that the Russians had mostly surrounded,” said Cancian. “To get to Pokrovsk, the Russians will need to push five times further. This is more territory than they have captured since March 2022.”
Newsweek has contacted Russia’s defense ministry for comment by email.
Pokrovsk has been targeted by missile strikes on numerous occasions since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Last month, 11 people, including five children, were killed in a Russian S-300 missile strike on Pokrovsk, the governor of the Ukrainian-held part of the Donetsk region, Vadym Filashkin, said on his Telegram channel.
And in August 2023, a “double tap” missile strike—two Iskander missiles launched 40 minutes apart—killed seven people in the city.
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.